TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 4 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:29 pm eastern time, 8/4/2008
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The market opened flat on Monday and then the selling
started immediately. The market traded in trend down mode
until reaching 1247.00 on the SP futures around noon time.
The market got its footing and turned up, and the SP futures
rallied back to 1256.75. A little double top formed off of
that level and the market pulled back. However, the SP
futures held ground at a 1250.50 pullback low, and after
some churning the market then sprinted higher. After getting
to 1260.00 on the SP futures the move ran out of steam, and
with an hour left in stock trading the selling picked up
steam. The SP and Nasdaq futures both made new lows for the
day and then the market firmed into the close.
We get the Fed decision on interest rate policy around 2:15
pm on Tuesday. The way the market acted on Monday, shorting
bounces should offer the better odds trades as long as the
1260.00 level on the SP futures isn't exceeded and held. The
market is still in a big range, and in order to get anything
going on the upside, both the 1259.75-1260.25 area on the SP
futures and the 1825.25-1826.00 area on the Nasdaq futures
must be cleared and not quickly reversed.
On Tuesday look for early strength to set up a shorting
opportunity as soon as any upside stalls out. If the market
obliges, beware that the first decent selloff should set up
a trade on the long side after a drop flattens out and/or
reverses. After the Fed release the market should find a
trend after a about 20-30 minutes of back-and-forth action.
If this occurs, the move should last into the last 30
minutes or so. Just don't get married to either side because
when the momentum stalls and the market turns, the moves can
be fast and fairly large.
The first good resistance is at the 1259.75-1260.25 area on
the SP futures and the 1825.25-1826.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. Those were lids on Monday, and a test of those
zones that reverses would leave multiple tops at those zones
and they will become key resistance zones. However, if the
market gets back up there and doesn't have any trouble, then
the 1264.50-1265.00 area on the SP futures and the 1836.50-
1838.00 area on the Nasdaq futures would be the next
hurdles. If those are reached, and the market doesn't back
off, then we could see a rally back towards the 1270.75-
1271.25 area on the SP futures and the 1854.25-1855.75 area
on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1246.50-1246.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1801.75-1800.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market can hold those areas, or quickly reverse if
they are broken, then the next support is down at the
1241.00-1240.50 area on the SP futures and the 1794.00-
1792.75 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are not
defended, then the market could go to the 1236.50-1236.00
area on the SP futures and the 1787.00-1786.00 area on the
Nasdaq futures before a reversal occurs. If the market gets
down there, and still doesn't reverse, then the key support
at the 1233.00-1332.50 area on the SP futures and the
1778.25-1777.50 area on the Nasdaq futures will need to hold
to avoid a bad day for the bulls.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1259.75-1260.25
1264.50-1265.00
1270.75-1271.25
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1246.50-1246.00
1241.00-1240.50
1236.50-1236.00
1233.00-1332.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1825.25-1826.00
1836.50-1838.00
1854.25-1855.75
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1801.75-1800.25
1794.00-1792.75
1787.00-1786.00
1778.25-1777.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11357-11362
11409-11411
11465-11469
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11249-11245
11197-11194
11154-11148
11111-11106
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
711.70-712.20
718.80-719.30
723.80-724.30
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
702.70-702.40
699.40-698.90
693.50-693.00
690.20-689.90
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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