TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 17 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:44 pm eastern time, 8/17/2008
The market ran up to 1302.50 on the SP futures in the first
15 minutes of trading on Friday and then quickly reversed.
They dropped to 1290.50 in about 25 minutes and then turned
back up. The rally fizzled at 1301.75 and the SP futures
pulled back to 1294.00 before turning back up. The bounce
stalled and reversed from 1299.00 and pulled back to test
the 1294.00 level again. That held and the SP futures
chopped their way back to 1300.50 by the close.
The market is acting timidly and the Friday action was
choppy and within a relatively narrow range. The SP futures
have banged their heads against a lid at the 1300.75-1302.50
zone four times now. If they can finally get back over the
1300 level on the SP500 cash and not quickly reverse as
they have been doing, then we could see a rally back towards
the 1306.50-1307.00 area. If that occurs, then we'll see
what the market wants to do bigger picture. If the market
rallies and then reverses from that area, then a sizable
sell-off could be beginning. However, if the market rallies
to that zone and doesn't stop, then a mini melt-up could run
the SP futures towards the 1319.50-1321.50 zone before a
potential top.
On the other side of the coin, if the market cannot get a
rally going on Monday and stay over 1300 on the SP futures
but instead sells off and breaks the initial support, then a
lower high is likely in place and a decent selloff is
underway. A close under 1285 on the SP500 cash on Monday
would turn the trends down and could cause a sharp drop.
The initial resistance is at the 1301.75-1302.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1967.50-1968.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market pops up there on the open and
reverses on Monday, it will set up a shorting opportunity.
However, if those areas are not a problem getting through
then the move could go for the 1306.50-1307.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1976.50-1977.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas are reached, be alert for a
reversal. If that doesn't happen, then a move to test the
1312.75-1313.50 area on the SP futures and the 1984.50-
1986.00 area on the Nasdaq futures could be in the cards.
There is minor support at the 1296.50 level on the SP
futures and the 1956.75 level on the Nasdaq futures, and
then what should be key support at the 1294.00-1293.75 area
on the SP futures and the 1953.00-1952.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are broken, then the 1289.00-1288.50 area
on the SP futures and the 1949.50-1948.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures should be reversed if the market is going to avoid
trouble. If those are broken, then the big support is at the
1285.00-1284.50 area on the SP futures and the 1942.25-
1941.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If there is a close
under that zone on the SP futures then the market could be
starting a sizable leg on the downside.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1301.75-1302.50
1306.50-1307.00
1312.75-1313.50
1319.50-1321.50 **** MAJOR
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1296.50
1294.00-1293.75
1289.00-1288.50
1285.00-1284.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1967.50-1968.00
1976.50-1977.50
1984.50-1986.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1956.75
1953.00-1952.50
1949.50-1948.50
1942.25-1941.25
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11707-11712
11752-11756
11808-11811
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11632
11608-11604
11579-11576
11546-11542
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
764.10-764.50
768.20-768.60
772.80-773.30
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
752.00
749.00-748.70
745.70-745.30
742.30-741.60
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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