TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 10 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:44 pm eastern time, 8/10/2008
Our early game-plan for Friday was to get long if there was
an early washout that reversed, especially from the 1258-
1257 zone on the SP futures, and then look for a shorting
opportunity when the first rebound stalled out. The market
did open lower, but the SP futures reversed from 1262.00 and
the rally was straight up without much hesitation until
reaching 1286.50. The market traded sideways foe a while,
but then the 1284.50 level was broken and held and the
market headed higher. The SP futures reached 1289.25 and
churned in a narrow range again, but then broke out again
and rallied to 1296.75. That was just a tick below the 1297-
1298 zone and the SP futures backed down to 1292.50. That
was just above the 1291.50 support and the 1298.00 level was
met with 10 minutes left in stock trading. The market backed
off as the SP futures went to the 1292.00 support right at
the
4:15 pm settlement.
On Friday I gave the 1297-1298 zone on the SP futures as a
target, and a resistance zone to get short or buy Puts. If
you are in that position, bring the stop down to break-even
and lock in some profit on early weakness on Monday.
The market was a lot stronger than thought coming into
Friday's trading, however this 300 point rally by the Dow on
Friday brought out the bulls. This may carry further on the
upside, but not at this same pace. A big rally on a summer
Friday is the kind of thing that has preceded August tops in
the past, followed by drops into October lows. We'll see how
things shape up early this week. If this is going to be just
a good rally in a bear market, the 1320 level on the SP500
cash is about as far as this move should go. That is the 50%
retracement from 1440.24 to 1200.44. First, however, there
will be a battle to get over 1300 and stick.
On Monday, to avoid going into downtrends, the initial
support near the Friday closes for the futures needs to
hold. If they don't, then a deeper pullback and possibly a
decent sized selloff could be in the works. If there is
early strength, look for a shorting opportunity if there is
early strength that fails near the initial resistance zones.
On the other side of the coin, the first decent pullback
should set up a buying opportunity if the 1287.50-1287.00
area on the SP futures can be defended. If it cannot, then a
potential top could be in place and the market could get
sold off fairly hard.
The initial resistance is at the 1297.50-1298.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1931.00-1932.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are broken and the market doesn't quickly
reverse, then the door would be open for a run up to the
1304.00-1304.50 area on the SP futures and the 1938.25-
1939.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets up
there, it will need to hold that 1298.00 level on a pullback
to stay in uptrends. If that occurs and the market can
continue its rally, then look for good resistance at the
1310.00-1311.00 area on the SP futures and the 1947.50-
1948.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1292.50-1292.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1922.50-1922.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are broken and the market doesn't quickly reverse,
then there should be pressure on the downside. The 1287.50-
1287.00 area on the SP futures and the 1917.00-1916.00 area
on the Nasdaq futures would need to hold if that selloff
occurs. If those areas do not hold, then there should be
good support at the 1282.25-1281.25 area on the SP futures
and the 1909.50-1908.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market gets back down there and buyers still are not
interested, then it opens the door for a fall back towards
the 1276.25-1275.75 area on the SP futures and the 1897.75-
1896.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1297.50-1298.00
1304.00-1304.50
1310.00-1311.00
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1292.50-1292.00
1287.50-1287.00
1282.25-1281.25
1276.25-1275.75
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1931.00-1932.25
1938.25-1939.00
1947.50-1948.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1922.50-1922.00
1917.00-1916.00
1909.50-1908.50
1897.75-1896.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11744-11749
11801-11808
11868-11872
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11682-11680
11638-11635
11596-11592
11484-11478
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
735.40-735.80
740.20-740.80
744.80-745.20
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
731.20-730.70
729.70-729.50
726.20-725.80
718.60-717.80
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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