TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
7 / 28 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:46 pm eastern time, 7/28/2008
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The market opened slightly higher on Monday, but after about
30 minutes of trading the SP futures popped over and then
reversed back through the 1258.00-1258.50 zone and the
pressure was on. After breaking 11320 and holding on the Dow
cash, the blue chips led the market steadily lower for most
of the day. Once the key support at the 1251.00 level on the
SP futures was broken, it turned into resistance and they
fell to the 1241.00 support before a bounce. The bounce
couldn't stick over 1244, as the move quickly reversed and
the trend down move continued. The selloff lasted into the
close of stock trading in what was an ugly day for the
bulls.
We get the Consumer Confidence number 30 minutes into the
trading day on Tuesday. A good number is needed as the
market looks destined to head to test the years lows if
there isn't a turn back up very soon. Trend days are often
times followed by choppy, two-sided action as the market
digests the damage that was done. We will likely get that on
Tuesday, but shorting the bounces should offer the better
odds trades unless the trends turn back up.
On Tuesday if there is follow through weakness, look to get
long but only on a reversal. If that plays out, don't fall
in love with the long side yet. It will take a break and
hold over the initial resistance areas to put a dent in the
downside momentum. The first decent bounce should set up a
better odds trade on the short side as soon as a bounce back
stalls and/or reverses.
The first good resistance is at the 1244.00-1244.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1823.75-1824.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas are broken and not quickly reversed,
then the next hurdles would be at the 1250.00-1250.50 area
on the SP futures and the 1832.50-1833.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market gets back up there and the move does
not fail, then the door would be open for a move towards the
1256.50 level on the SP futures and the 1848.50 level on the
Nasdaq futures. If the market has reason to rally, and those
areas do not cause a reaction, then the major short term
resistance is at the 1261.50-1263.00 area on the SP futures.
There is support at the 1233.00-1232.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1809.50-1809.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market cannot quickly reverse from those areas, then
beware of a potential reversal from the 1228.50-1228.00 area
on the SP futures and the 1800.50-1800.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If that doesn't play out, then there should be
pretty good support at the 1225.50-1224.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1789.25-1787.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those zones are reached and there isn't a very quick
reversal, then the downside could gather some steam and take
the market towards the 1218.50-1217.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1778.50-1777.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1244.00-1244.50
1250.00-1250.50
1256.50
1261.50-1263.00
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1233.00-1232.50
1228.50-1228.00
1225.50-1224.50
1218.50-1217.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1823.75-1824.50
1832.50-1833.50
1848.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1809.50-1809.00
1800.50-1800.00
1789.25-1787.50
1778.50-1777.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11192-11195
11233-11237
11342
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11106-11102
11064-11061
11042-11038
10978-10973
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
699.60-700.10
703.10-703.50
707.70
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
694.00-693.50
691.40-691.00
688.60-687.90
683.40-682.90
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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