TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 7 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:02 pm eastern time, 8/7/2008
The market opened lower on Thursday, and after about 20
minutes of trading the market turned back up. Off of a
1271.25 low, the SP futures ran up to 1282.25 and then
pulled back. The pullback stopped and turned from 1275.25,
and that area turned into a key support zone in the
afternoon. Another push higher took the SP futures to
1282.75, and a small pullback followed. A pop up to a lower
high at 1282.25 then reversed, making a 1-2-3 top pattern,
and the market rolled turned down. A bounce off of the
1275.75 level didn't stick, and once that support was broken
the market headed to the morning lows and didn't stop. With
15 minutes left in stock trading the SP futures reached
1263.50 and then bounced back into the close.
That 1263.50 low on the SP futures on Thursday was the .618
retracement from 1246.25 to 1291.75, and they bounced back
and closed above fair value on a bad day. That would be a
bullish sign very short term. However, the fact that the
market is down there just a day after a big double top at
1291-1292 shows signs of decent downside momentum building.
After the bearish internal divergences at the Wednesday
close, that could be a precursor to more selling on the
bigger picture.
On Friday, an early washout to 1258.00-1256.75 zone on the
SP futures that then reverses back up would set up a good
trade on the long side. If that plays out, beware that the
first bounce should fail, and turn into a shorting
opportunity as soon as the upside momentum stalls and the
move begins to turn. The bears are back in control unless
there is a move over the Thursday highs that doesn't quickly
reverse.
Look for some resistance at the 1272.00 level on the SP
futures and 1890.00 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those
are cleared then there should be pretty good resistance at
the 1275.25-1276.00 area on the SP futures and 1896.50-
1897.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are
reached, and the market doesn't reverse, then the big
hurdles would be at the 1282.25-1282.75 area on the SP
futures and 1906.75-1907.75 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1263.75-1263.00 area on the SP
futures and 1877.75-1876.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Those should be key areas. The decent sized pullbacks have
been seen as buying opportunities lately, so those areas
should be telling. If those are broken, then it opens the
door for a drop down to the 1258.00-1257.00 area on the SP
futures and 1871.00-1870.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
the market is going to turn around, then those areas
shouldn't be broken on Friday. If they are broken, and the
market doesn't quickly reverse right back up, then the door
is open for a spill towards the 1253.00-1252.50 area on the
SP futures and/or 1861.00-1859.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1272.00
1275.25-1276.00
1282.25-1282.75
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1263.75-1263.00
1258.00-1257.00
1253.00-1252.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1890.00
1896.50-1897.50
1906.75-1907.75
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1877.75-1876.50
1871.00-1870.25
1861.00-1859.75
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11476
11507-11512
11569-11572
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11401-11397
11352-11347
11298-11293
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
717.70
719.60-719.90
724.80-725.10
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
711.30-710.90
707.10-706.70
704.00-703.50
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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