TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 13 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:59 pm eastern time, 8/13/2008
The market opened lower on Wednesday and after reaching
1280.25 on the SP futures about 20 minutes into the day,
they quickly turned back up. The bounce didn't have much
gusto and the first bounce was sold per last night's update.
The move fizzled at 1285.50 and sell-off turned into a trend
down grind down to a 1274.50 on the SP futures. Shortly
after noon the market finally turned back up and after
getting through 1279.50 on the SP futures, the market
rallied back nicely. After reaching 1294.50, the SP futures
pulled back and then bounced to 1293.25 and turned down.
That set up a 1-2-3 top and the SP futures dropped to
1281.25 before bouncing into the close.
The action was very much two-sided on Wednesday, as the SP
futures are staying in a channel / rising wedge on the daily
charts. Ever since dropping from 1313.50 to 1294.25, and
then getting turned back down from 1301.50, the market has
been under pressure, and the rallies have been aggressively
sold when the move burned out and rolled over. This appears
to be topping action and if the market makes one more rally
to a lower high and then reverses, the daily chart could
form a bigger picture 1-2-3 top.
The market is now in a range within a bigger trading range
at the moment. The initial resistance should be hard to get
through. On the downside, the initial support is where the
market began getting momentum on the upside on Wednesday and
should offer good support.
With the rallies not sticking, the better set-ups should
occur on the short side on Thursday. That should be the case
if a test of the Wednesday highs occurs and the move
stalls/reverses. On the other side of the coin, if a
pullback can hold and reverse from the initial support areas
in the early going on Thursday, then we could get one more
run towards the Wednesday highs. If we get that kind of
action in the early going (a drop to initial support that
reverses early), then it should be worth trading carefully
on the long side. Just be ready to exit and/or get short
when the upside momentum fizzles. We saw 1-2-3 topping
patterns on Monday and Wednesday, and price action like that
would make very good odds setups with good risk/reward on
our sides.
The initial resistance is at the 1293.25-1294.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1959.25-1961.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market pops up there and the move fizzles,
it's a good shorting opportunity. However, if there is a
rally and the market doesn't show a sign of turning then the
move could extend towards the 1297.50-1298.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1966.00-1967.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are reached, the market should find it difficult to
get through and should set up a good shorting opportunity.
If the market gets there and still doesn't stop, then the
key hurdles would be at the 1301.25-1301.75 area on the SP
futures and the 1971.75-1972.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1280.25-1280.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1931.75-1930.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are not defended then the door is open for a test
of the 1274.50 level on the SP futures and the 1923.75 level
on the Nasdaq futures. If those levels break and do not
quickly reverse, then a drop towards the 1270.25-1269.75
area on the SP futures and the 1919.75-1918.50 area on the
Nasdaq futures is probably in the cards. If those areas are
reached and the move stalls/reverses, then it should set up
a good buying opportunity unless there is something really
troubling the market. If that's the case, then the 1264.50-
1264.00 area on the SP futures and the 1908.75-1907.50 area
on the Nasdaq futures could be in the cards.
***My college baseball coach is paying me a visit and so
there will be no intraday updates after 11 am. There might
be one after 1 pm, but no promises.***
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1293.25-1294.50
1297.50-1298.00
1301.25-1301.75
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1280.25-1280.00
1274.50
1270.25-1269.75
1264.50-1264.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1959.25-1961.00
1966.00-1967.00
1971.75-1972.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1931.75-1930.50
1923.75
1919.75-1918.50
1908.75-1907.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11596-11601
11638-11642
11718-11723
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11482-11479
11443
11401-11398
11372-11367
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
751.10-751.50
754.80-755.10
757.70-758.20
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
741.10-740.80
736.70
733.40-732.90
729.50-729.10
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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