TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
7 / 29 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 8:33 pm eastern time, 7/29/2008
*** NOTE: We are leaving for a short but deserved vacation
on Wednesday morning, and will be away until Sunday,
August 3rd. The next regular update will be sent on Sunday
night, August 3rd.
Good trading,
Mike
The market opened higher on Tuesday and then pulled back.
The dip was bought and the SP futures rallied to the
1250.00-1250.50 resistance zone. They pulled back to the
updated support and then headed back up in a stair-step move
higher, the SP futures reached the 1256.50 resistance level,
and after a brief pop to 1257.00 they reversed and dropped
to 1252.25. A bounce to a lower high at 1256.00 turned and
that 1-2-3 top pattern started a drop to 1250.00 on the SP
futures with just over an hour left in the day. The bulls
defended the 1250 level and the market caught fire in the
last 75 minutes as the SP futures rallied all the way to the
resistance at 1263.00 before pulling back into their
settlement.
The market did the abnormal and had a basic trend-up day on
Tuesday. The only fly in the ointment is that the Nasdaq
futures made its high in the morning, and then was turned
down each time it poked up to the 1852 area. It looks like
the market is in a very big trading range and might put
together a rally that tests the 1291 high, or go a bit
higher. We'll see though. If the VIX drops under 20.30
and then reverses back up, it will give a number of sell
signals. Watch this if the market follows through and can
rally a bit further.
The 1250.50-1249.75 area on the SP futures is in about the
middle of this big range, and should be pivotal. The last 2
days of the month have a bullish bias historically, so as
long as the SP futures stay over that 1250.50-1249.75 area
the market will be okay. If that area is broken, and not
quickly reversed, then things change and a move back towards
the 1233-1232 zone on the SP futures is likely.
On Wednesday look for early strength to set up a shorting
opportunity as soon as the move stalls/reverses. If the
market obliges, then be ready to cover and get long if the
first decent pullback holds at or above the initial
resistance areas. Also, keep an eye on the Nasdaq futures as
the action there should either help or hinder the rest of
the market on Wednesday.
The initial resistance is at the 1263.00-1263.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1844.75-1845.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures. That was a lid on the SP futures, so if the market
gets through those areas then there could be a run to the
1268.50-1270.25 area on the SP futures and the 1851.50-
1854.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. That area looks
important for the Nasdaq futures, so if a rally stalls up
there, be on alert for a reversal. However, if both of those
areas are cleared, then the door is open for a rally towards
the 1274.50-1275.00 area on the SP futures and the 1858.75-
1860.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1256.50-1256.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1838.75-1838.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Those areas should hold if the rally is going to continue.
If those are tested and not turned back up quickly, then the
market could test the 1250.50-1249.75 area on the SP futures
and the 1831.25-1830.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those
areas do not hold, then the market is back in downtrends and
a move towards the 1244.50-1244.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1824.50-1823.75 area on the Nasdaq futures would
need to hold to avoid another big down day.
*** NOTE: We are leaving for a short but deserved vacation
on Wednesday morning, and will be away until Sunday, August
3rd. The next regular update will be sent on Sunday night,
August 3rd.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1263.00-1263.50
1268.50-1270.25
1274.50-1275.00
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1256.50-1256.00
1250.50-1249.75
1244.50-1244.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1844.75-1845.75
1851.50-1854.00
1858.75-1860.25
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1838.75-1838.00
1831.25-1830.50
1824.50-1823.75
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11379-11384
11445-11452
11482-11486
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11329-11324
11269-11264
11195-11192
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
715.40-716.00
719.60-719.90
723.10-723.50
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
710.00-709.50
706.10-705.40
700.10-699.60
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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