TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 5 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:48 pm eastern time, 8/5/2008
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A big up open found temporary resistance just above our
1259.75-1260.25 zone on Tuesday, but after a 3.25 point dip
to 1257.50 the market headed higher. The SP futures stalled
at 1267.00, but after a 3.00 point dip to 1264.00 the market
headed higher again. The trend-up action took the SP futures
to 1273.75, and about 10 minutes before the Fed release, the
trend reversed as the SP futures dropped to 1267.75 just
before the 2:15 pm Fed release. After the release there was
a quick pop higher that reversed from 1278.25, and then the
market quickly pulled right back to the areas where it was
trading when the release was issued. The SP futures held at
1269.75 and buying/ short covering drove prices back to
slightly higher highs. The market pulled back and then
churned for about 25 minutes, and then the rally continued
as the SP futures tested the 1284.50-1285.00 zone by the
close.
This move is getting overbought and there are some short
term internal momentum divergences on the daily indicators.
Tuesday was basically a trend day, with a spike in the
middle, and that should be followed with some back and forth
action on Wednesday. If there is early strength, it should
set up a very good shorting opportunity in the early going.
If the market obliges, a pullback should hold at, or above,
the 1276.00-1275.50 area on the SP futures. If that occurs,
then the bulls are still in control. However, if the last
hour lows from Tuesday cannot hold, then a top could be in
place and shorting bounces then will offer the better odds
trades.
The initial resistance is at the 1284.50-1285.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1882.50-1883.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market pops up there on Wednesday and stalls
or reverses it could start a selloff. However, if those
areas are broken and the market doesn't quickly turn down,
then the door would be open for a test of the 1291.00-
1292.00 area on the SP futures and the 1892.50-1893.75 area
on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are reached, and the
market doesn't reject them and reverse, then there could be
a push towards the 1297.25-1298.25 area on the SP futures
and the 1899.50-1901.00 area on the Nasdaq futures before
any kind of reversal occurs.
The initial support is at the 1282.00-1281.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1869.00-1868.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Those are just under the Tuesday settlement prices for the
futures and if they are not able to hold then we should see
a test of the 1276.00-1275.50 area on the SP futures and the
1857.50-1857.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market
gets back down there, and still cannot get turned back up,
then the market is weak and a drop towards the 1268.25-
1267.75 area on the SP futures and the 1844.00-1842.75 area
on the Nasdaq futures could be in the cards. Those are the
spike low areas before the post Fed-release rally, and
usually is key after a Fed day. If those are tested and they
are not defended, then the market is reversing to the
downside and a move to the 1264.00-1263.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1836.00-1834.50 area on the Nasdaq futures
should be magnets.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1284.50-1285.00
1291.00-1292.00
1297.25-1298.25
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1282.00-1281.50
1276.00-1275.50
1268.25-1267.75
1264.00-1263.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1882.50-1883.25
1892.50-1893.75
1899.50-1901.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1869.00-1868.00
1857.50-1857.00
1844.00-1842.75
1836.00-1834.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11599-11604
11662-11667
11712-11717
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11578-11575
11537-11535
11459-11456
11414-11408
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
721.60-722.10
725.20-725.80
729.90-730.40
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
720.40-720.00
715.40-715.00
711.20-710.80
707.20-706.80
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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