Monday, August 25, 2008

TradeStalker's RBI Update 08/18/08

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

8 / 18 / 2008

(Published Since 1996)

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Dateline: 5:52 pm eastern time, 8/18/2008


After falling from a 1306.00 high pre-open, the day session
opened with a pop to the 1301.75-1302.50 initial resistance
zone on Monday and turned down. The selling took the SP
futures down to 1290.50 in the first 50 minutes and the
market turned back up. The bounce was a feeble one and after
reaching the updated resistance at 1296.00 the market then
began to churn between 1296.25 and 1292.75. A break through
the bottom of that zone caused a downside acceleration as
the SP futures sold off to 1286.25 before any attempt to
bounce occurred. That bounce had no gusto, and the trend
down move continued into the last hour. The SP futures
turned up from the 1274.50 level, and then a bounce to the
1279.50-1280.25 zone followed. That pop didn't stick, and
the market went back to test the lows in the last 15 minutes
of stock trading. The test passed, as the market quickly
reversed and the SP futures bounced to 1281.75 before the
close.

Monday was an "outside day" for the SP futures, and they
bounced back to settle nearly 4 points above "fair value" on
Monday. That usually leads to some two-sided action the
following day. We get the PPI and Housing Starts before the
open on Tuesday. We may get one more decent rally before the
market gets itself back into a weak position again. For now,
nothing "bad" is going to happen unless there is a break and
hold under the 1274.50-1274.00 area on Tuesday. If the
market opens lower on Tuesday, be alert for a reversal back
to the upside in the first 30 minutes or so of trading. If
that plays out, the first decent rally should set up a
shorting opportunity when the upside stalls out or reverses,
especially if the move stalls out at a good resistance zone.


The initial resistance is at the 1284.50-1285.00 area on the
SP futures and 1947.00-1947.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are broken, then the next hurdles would be at the
1292.50-1293.00 area on the SP futures and 1952.75-1954.25.
If those are reached, and the market doesn't reverse, then
the 1295.75-1296.25 area on the SP futures and 1960.00-
1960.50 would be the last good resistance in the way of
testing 1300 again on the SP futures.

There is minor support at the 1278.00 level on the SP
futures and 1935.00 level on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are broken, then the Monday low areas at the 1274.50-
1274.00 area on the SP futures and 1924.50-1923.75 would
need to hold to avoid more trouble. If buyers don't step to
the plate on a test of those zones, then a spill towards the
1268.50-1268.00 area on the SP futures and 1919.25-1918.50
is likely going to be seen before any kind of turn occurs.



September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8

1284.50-1285.00
1292.50-1293.00
1295.75-1296.25
1302.00-1302.75

September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8

1278.00
1274.50-1274.00
1268.50-1268.00

September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8

1947.00-1947.50
1952.75-1954.25
1960.00-1960.50

September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8

1935.00
1924.50-1923.75
1919.25-1918.50

September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8

11499-11502
11594-11598
11625-11629

September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8

11465
11430-11426
11369-11366

September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8

747.60-748.00
751.50-752.00
754.90-755.40

September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8

739.90
737.20-736.70
733.40-732.90

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Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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is substantial. You can lose more than your original
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