TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 20 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 8/20/2009
A lower open was reversed on Thursday, and the ES rallied
from 994.25 up to the 1003.50-1004.00 resistance zone. From
1 tick under that zone, the ES pulled back 4 points from
1003.25 to 999.25 and then turned right back. The ES then
bounced back to 1004.75 before fizzling and pulling back.
The 1004.50 area turned into a lid, but the ES traded in a
3.50 point range for over 4 hours. Then in the last hour the
market caught a bid and rallied up to make a tiny double top
at 1007.75. That was aggressively sold and the futures fell
off into the close.
The market is back near the highs, so the upside won't be
easy from here. The market had 3 decent days after the
Monday drop, but the air gets thin when the market gets up
here. The bids dry up and locking in profits is the first
order of business. The way the futures acted near the close
looks like a tip-off for lower prices on Friday. The ES
settled under fair value for the first time in 6 days. They
also quickly rejected a good resistance area (the 1007 level
was exceeded by 3/4 of a point), rather than punish shorts
with another big run-up into settlement time.
We get Existing Home Sales 30 minutes into trading on
Friday. At this point it looks like reward/risk is skewed in
favor of the bears short term. Also, a poor day on Friday
would give 1-2-3 top patterns on the daily charts. Bigger
picture, it would make the weekly low at 975.50 a major
support level, and odds would be good for a drop towards the
965.50 level at a minimum.
On Friday look to sell any early strength that reverses from
around the initial resistance, if we get that. If the market
opens lower, then beware that the first bounce will set up a
shorting opportunity if the move stalls out or quickly
reverses, especially if that occurs just under the Thursday
afternoon highs. It would take a solid move through those
areas, that's not quickly reversed, to set up a little melt-
up action. If somehow the ES rallies through the 1016.00-
1017.00 area, then we could see 1024-1025 before the upside
tops out. It is low odds, so don't hold your breath on that
happening.
September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1007.50-1008.00
1012.00-1012.50
1016.00-1017.00
September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1004.25
1002.00-1001.50
999.00-998.50
992.25-991.50
988.75-987.75
September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1619.75-1620.25
1624.50-1625.50
1629.25-1631.00
September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1612.75
1608.25-1607.50
1604.00-1603.00
1597.75-1596.50
1591.50-1590.25
September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9
9347-9352
9388-9394
9408-9411
September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9
9315
9302-9298
9279-9276
9242-9238
9201-9197
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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