TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 5 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:08 pm eastern time, 8/5/2009
After a slightly lower open on Wednesday, the ES popped up
to 1004.00 and quickly reversed and the market headed
downhill pretty fast. After getting to 991.75 there was a
bounce, but the move failed and the market went back to test
the lows. A little double bottom formed and the market
headed higher. The 997.00-997.50 zone was rejected twice,
but after a drop to 992.75 reversed, the market headed
higher in stair-step fashion. The upside was rejected when
the ES reached 1003.75, and with double top in place the
market backed off and finished the day around the middle of
the day's ranges.
The market is turning range-bound with selling coming from
the 1003-1004 area and buying coming in around the 992-991
area on the ES. This move is losing upside momentum, and the
bounces are being sold as soon as the upside sprint stalls.
The selloffs occurred fairly quickly also, instead of the
well contained drifts lower we have had most of the time
lately. In addition, my internal gauges turned from extreme
overbought territory and that should at least keep a collar
on the upside. If the ES gets back to the initial
resistance, and the move either stalls or is quickly
rejected, it could be a "last hurrah" before a good sized
correction begins.
The big data will be the Employment data released on Friday,
but on Thursday morning we get the Initial Claims data
before the open. The Nasdaq was the leader on the way up,
but after making a double top at 1632.00 on Tuesday, the
tech sector led the downside on Wednesday. That move by the
semiconductor index is parabolic, as are many of the Dow
stocks, and the Wednesday action was the first visible chink
in this bull market rally. If the NQ continues to drop, the
rest of the market will follow the leader on the way down.
The NQ is the weakest and the better short on bounces for
now.
On Thursday look for early strength as a gift shorting
opportunity. If that happens to play out, then look for a
potential reversal attempt after the first 20-40 minutes of
trading. If the market opens lower instead, then it should
provide a bounce. But be on lookout for that bounce to
fizzle out to set up a shorting opportunity, especially if
there is one more pop to the 1002-1004 area that reverses.
On the downside, the 992.75-991.75 area on the ES (the
bottom of the current range) will need to be defended if
there is another decent sized pullback. If that area is
broken, it would mean that a top is likely forming. If the
market gets down there and turns back up, but can only
bounce back to the 997-998 area at best before reversing,
then things could be changing short to intermediate term.
September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1003.75-1004.00
1005.50-1006.25
1008.50-1009.00
1011.50-1012.50
September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
998.50-998.00
995.50
992.75-991.75
988.75-987.75
September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1618.50-1619.00
1622.50-1623.25
1626.75-1627.50
1631.50-1632.50
September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1610.00-1609.50
1606.25
1603.00-1602.50
1598.75-1597.75
September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9
9275-9280
9289-9292
9317-9322
9355-9359
September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9
9228-9225
9210
9169-9164
9144-9130
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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