Thursday, December 28, 2006

Market Comment 12/28/06

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/ 28 / 2006

(Published Since 1996)
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Dateline: 6:49 pm Eastern time, 12/28/2006

The market opened slightly lower on Thursday and then popped
back up. That bounce was sold, and after a quick drop the
market bounced back once again. And once again, the move
fizzled and the market stair stepped lower into lunchtime
trading. While reaching a low at 1433.00 on the SP futures,
the Nasdaq futures made a higher low for a switch, and the
rest of the market followed the Nasdaq's lead. However, the
rally fizzled with about an hour left in the trading day,
reversing after reaching the 1438.00 level on the SP futures
and 1783.50-1785.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. Selling came
in near the close, as the SP and Nasdaq futures spiked down
to 1432.50 and 1772.00, respectively, then recovered a bit
into the close.

We will be taking a New Years break, so the next update will
be on Tuesday night -- after the Tuesday trading session is
complete. We want wish all of our loyal readers a healthy
prosperous New Year.

Whether or not the market tries to rally into the end of
month/quarter/year is up in the air right now. Both the
bulls and bears would like another shot at the highs made
late on Thursday. As I stated last night, those resistance
areas just above should be lids here short term. If they get
back up there and stall out like they did on Thursday, "load
the boat" on the short side. On the bottom side, as long as
the bulls can defend the initial support zones, nothing bad
will happen.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Market Comment 12/27/06

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/ 27 / 2006

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:11 pm Eastern time, 12/27/2006

The market gapped up on Wednesday's open and kept going for
about 25 minutes. The move stalled and reversed, but the
selloff wasn't very sharp except for the Nasdaq futures. The
market turned itself around and moved back to test the
highs, then things quieted down for awhile. Just before 2pm
the market got going on the upside, and the rally took the
market to the 1438.75 level on the SP futures and 1784.50
level on the Nasdaq futures.Those highs were sold after
stocks closed as the futures sold off into settlement.

Up until late Wednesday, the market had a bullish tone and
buyers were in control. The move off of the Friday lows is
now getting a little bit ragged. At this point, a nice
little shakeout shouldn't be too far away. The Nasdaq is
still acting tired, and unable to match the good move in the
blue chips. The Dow set another record high print, and
closing high on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the SP500 closed just
below its 12-15 high. The Nasdaq 100 closed 56 points below
its 11-22 closing high. The daily internal gauges are
nowhere near their corresponding highs, and that leaves us
with bearish divergences. On top of that, the RBI Sell gate
is now open. The RBI Buy gate was open at Friday's close,
and that helped lift the market. Now that we're coming in to
good overhead resistance, the open sell gate should help
hold prices back.

We get the Consumer Confidence number at 10am on Thursday.
It looks like the initial resistance areas should be a lid
on Thursday, as they were at resistance areas and rejected.
The market will be a short unless those areas are cleared,
and then can hold on a pullback.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Market Comment 12/26/06

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/ 26 / 2006

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:32 pm Eastern time, 12/26/2006

The market rallied out of the starting gate Tuesday morning,
but the rally was rejected at the 1427.50-1428.00 resistance
on the SP futures and 1774.00-1776.00 zone on the Nasdaq
futures. From there the market gave back half of its gains
before noon. After then going sideways for a few hours, the
market started to rally back in the early afternoon. After
stalling out just under the early highs for an hour there
was a little shakeout lower, but as soon as the move stalled
buyers came in and took the market to new highs for the day
in the final minutes of trading.

Well, it would have been perfect had the market sold off
early and then reversed to close like it did on Tuesday.
That didn't set up though, yet the market still ended the
day in pretty good shape. The last 4 days of the month have
tended to be good for the long side. In addition, the VIX
gave several buy signals on Tuesday as sentiment swings back
from too bearish. The bad news is that the Nasdaq is still
struggling, and certainly was the lager on Tuesday.

On Wednesday morning, look for early strength to be sold and
then for the first decent pullback to offer a set-up on the
long side. As long as the 1425.00-1424.50 area on the SP
futures holds, the bulls should be in control.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Market Comment 12/25/06

This is last night's market comment...
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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/ 25 / 2006

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:10 pm Eastern time, 12/25/2006

The market couldn't clear initial resistance, or establish
any uptrend, on Friday. That meant selling bounces was the
play, and the market was in bad shape for the 5th out of the
last 6 trading days. There was a bounce off of the last
support zones early in the day but, per usual of recent
action, the bounce was sold as soon as the move fizzled and
the market sold off to close at the lows for the day.

With the market getting very close to what should be a
critical juncture, I thought I'd sneak away and take time to
point a few things out for Tuesday's trading session.

IF the market hasn't been hurt too much by the recent
action, then we should be close to a short term low. The
trendline off the summer low on the SP500 daily chart is
just below. Along with that trendline, the drop thus far is
very close to being equal to the prior three drops. From
08-04 to 08-10 the SP futures fell 32.50 points before
reversing and beginning a new uptrend. From 10-26 to 11-03
the SP futures fell 30.75 points, and then resumed the
uptrend. The last drop from 11-22 to 11-28 was 32.50 points
on the SP futures, and then the market started a new
uptrend.

An equivalent drop would take the SP futures to the
1413.50-1411.75 zone. There also is the .618 retracement
from the 11-28 swing low to the 12-15 top down in that area
(1411.00), so price-wise that zone looks very important.
Along with the SP500 coming to a key cluster of support, the
VIX has moved almost 10% over its 10 day average close.
That's a short term extreme, and we could get buy signals if
it turns down. In addition to that, the RBI Buy gate is open.

So, in a nutshell.... it looks like the SP futures will
need to find buyers on a test of the 1413.50-1411.75 zone.
If the market sells off that far, it should come roaring
back. If it gets there, and can *not* get bid up, then we
could see a panic selloff set in.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Market Comment 12/21/06

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/ 21 / 2006

(Published Since 1996)

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Dateline: 7:02 pm Eastern time, 12/21/2006

The market opened higher on Thursday and moved up to the
1437.75-1438.50 initial resistance area on the SP futures.
After touching 1438.00, the move reversed and they sold off
to the initial support areas. There was a small bounce, but
it was also sold in to and the market went back to make
lower lows. After another bounce the market rolled over and
sold off steadily until reaching the 1426.50-1426.00 support
area on the SP futures. With two hours left in the trading
day, the market crawled back into the last hour and then
softened into the close.

First off, the next update will be sent on Tuesday night.
We'd like to wish all of our subscribers a safe and
wonderful Holiday Weekend.

The action is likely going to be thin on Friday. The market
has acted poor for 4 of the past 5 days, and unless / until
there is an established uptrend intact, the short side
should still offer the better setups. The initial resistance
will need to be cleared, and then hold on a pullback, in
order to get the market out of trouble on Friday. If this
occurs early, then buying pullbacks should be in play as
a decent rally could be in gear.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Market Comment 12/20/06

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/20/2006

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:44 pm Eastern time, 12/20/2006

The market opened slightly higher on Wednesday and rallied
on up to initial resistance at the 1440.00-1440.50 zone on
the SP futures. That was sold and the market reversed
course. The pullback was rather small, however, and the
market moved back to test the highs. Those areas were
rejected again and another drop followed. The market was
content trading within narrow ranges until the updated
1438.00 support was broken. The selling gathered some steam
as the market fell to new lows for the day, reaching 1434.25
on the SP futures and 1797.50 on the Nasdaq futures. With
decent support at those levels, buyers stepped to the plate
and the market snapped back. They tried to get a rally
going, but the move didn't have the oomph, and the failed
rally attempt led to a move back to the lows by the close.

There's a lot on the economic calendar on Thursday. We get
the GDP and Initial Claims before the open, then the Leading
Indicators at 10am and Philly Fed at noon. We'll see how the
market handles all of that. At the moment the market is
range-bound, with the rallies not sticking on 3 of the past
four days. The Dow made another record intraday print high,
yet the SP500 and Nasdaq 100 haven't confirmed by making a
new high for the year. The tech sector needs to get in gear
very soon or the market will get itself into trouble.

On Thursday morning, look to fade (trade in the opposite
side) an early overreaction to the pre-open numbers as soon
as the move fizzles / reverses. This should work better if
the market should gap down on the open, like on Tuesday.
Thereafter, the resistance and support areas should come
into play. If there is another move that gets sold around
the Wednesday highs, the next selloff could be a lot sharper
than we have been seeing.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Market Comment 12/19/06

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/19/2006

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................



Dateline: 5:47 pm Eastern time, 12/19/2006


The market gapped down on Tuesday's open and after about 10
minutes of selling the market turned up. The 1426.50 low on
the SP futures and the 1786.50 low on the Nasdaq futures
were one point above the last support zones and the rally
lasted into late morning. After reaching 1434.50 on the SP
futures and 1806.50 on the Nasdaq futures, the market turned
soggy and sold off into early afternoon. The pullback was
bought and after some churning there was an attack of the
early highs. Once those were cleared, the market caught a
strong bid and moved higher into the final hour of trading.
The SP futures rallied to 1440.50 while the Nasdaq futures
made it to 1814.50 and then backed off into the close.

We had record high print and close on the Dow on Tuesday.
Neither the SP500 nor Nasdaq 100 could do the same, but they
rallied back pretty well after the early hit they took. The
problem is that the market closed poorly. Both the SP and
Nasdaq futures settled well under fair value and the futures
would need to open about 2.00 points higher on the SP
futures and 4.00 points higher on the Nasdaq futures to be
in neutral mode.

On Wednesday, look for the "sell early, buy the first decent
pullback" type of pattern early in the day. Thereafter,
expect more two-sided action and try to only get involved at
extremes on both sides.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Monday, December 18, 2006

Market Comment 12/18/06

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/18/2006

(Published Since 1996)

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Dateline: 6:35 pm Eastern time, 12/18/2006


The market opened higher on Monday and rallied on up to test
the 1443.75-1444.75 area on the SP futures. We were using
that as a shorting zone with tight stops, and after making a
1444.00 high on the SP futures about 30 minutes into the
day, the market obliged and sold off into early afternoon. A
bounce off of a 1435.75 low fizzled out around 2 pm, and
then the downside reasserted itself. The market sold off to
make new lows at 1432.25 on the SP futures and 1804.50 on
the Nasdaq futures with less than an hour left in the
trading day. That was at the short term key support at the
1432.50-1431.50 area on the SP futures, and the market
bounced to close on a little upswing.

We get the PPI before the open on Tuesday. The market again
made its highs in the first hour and its lows in the last
hour on Monday. In order to turn things back around, we
probably need to see the market washout early in the day,
then turn around and rally back. However, as things stand
right now, the bears should be in control unless the initial
resistance areas can be cleared, and then hold on a
pullback. Unless that occurs, the short side should offer
the better trading opportunities.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Market Comment 12/17/06

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

12/17/2006

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................



Dateline: 6:33 pm Eastern time, 12/17/2006


It was a very good week for the stock market and with lots
of volatility for the daytrader. On Friday morning the SP
futures rallied to the 1443.75-1444.75 resistance zone and
by early afternoon they sold off to the 1437.50-1436.50
support zone. After a bounce from that area didn't get
traction, the market fell off and closed near the day's
lows.

The Dow and SP500 both made new intraday and closing highs.
The Nasdaq 100 refuses to join in. Its print high was 1824
and its closing high was 1819. We need to see that join the
parade, especially since it led most of the way up to these
levels.

That may have to wait for now. On Friday, the SP and Nasdaq
futures made their highs in the morning and then closed just
off the lows. This pattern at a new high shows distribution.
Along with prices, the VIX gave several sell signals on
Friday. It reversed from a multi-year low and closed near
its high for the day.

Both sides were in play last Friday and they likely will be
again on Monday. For now, treat the Friday high areas as a
shorting zone with tight stops. On the bottom side, if there
is a move back to the 1432.50-1431.50 area on the SP futures
and the market can hold that zone, then a decent buying
opportunity might present itself. Aside from that, try to
only get involved at extremes and leave the choppy periods
alone.

Get my nightly support and resistance zones that I'll be
buying and selling against the following trading day along
with my bullish or bearish outlook for the next day's market
action. Yes, we have a FREE TRIAL!

http://www.tradestalker.com/

Good Trading,
Mike Reed