Thursday, April 27, 2006

Market Comment 4/27/06

Dateline: 8:23 pm Eastern time, 04/27/2006

The market gapped down on Thursday morning and after 15
minutes of trading, prices turned up. Once the Bernanke
testimony was released, the market ran straight up. The move
was unsustainable and stopped right at resistance, and then
a pretty sharp drop followed. However, that weakness was
bought and the market took off again to make new highs for
the day just after noon. The futures made highs at 1321.00
on the SP futures and 1739.00 on the Nasdaq futures and then
the market started a drift lower. That drop took the SP
futures to 1314.00 while the Nasdaq futures fell to 1727.25.
Then with about 90 minutes left in the trading day, another
bounce began. A run up to test the highs failed and the
market sold off to end the day.

The market made outside days on the charts. Once again the
top of the trading range on the SP futures turned the market
back. The highs were made around noon and the afternoon
retest failed. The bears had the upper hand into the close.

Good Trading,

Mike Reed

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Market Comment 4/26/06

Dateline: 6:23 pm Eastern time, 04/26/2006

The market followed through on Tuesday's last hour strength,
moving higher for the first hour of trading on Wednesday.
The move stalled at the 1315.50-1316.50 resistance zone on
the SP futures and 1722.75-1723.50 resistance on the Nasdaq
futures. With highs at 1316.50 and 1721.25, a pullback to
1310.75 and 1709.50 followed. That brought in some buying,
but the move didn't stick and the market went back to test
the lows. The market settled into a choppy trading range,
playing ping-pong between 1314.50 and 1310.75 until the
final hour of trading. The range broke, sending the market
to new lows for the day, and then the market firmed into the
close.

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Good Trading,

Mike Reed

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Market Comment 4/25/06

Dateline: 7:03 pm Eastern Time, 04/25/2006

The market offered us a gift on Tuesday morning. We wanted
to short early strength in the 1315.50-1316.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1721.75-1722.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures. The early reversal from highs at 1316.50 on the SP
futures and 1723.50 on the Nasdaq futures set up a nice
entry on the short side, and the market obliged by selling
off pretty hard.

By noon the SP futures reached 1305.00 while the Nasdaq
futures fell to a 1706.50 low. There was a feeble bounce
into the early afternoon, and then the market made a stab at
lower lows. Those new lows were bought, and the market went
into a choppy trading environment. There was a pop to
1309.75 after the Intraday Update, but trends were pointing
down and the market backed off to test the lows again. With
an hour left in the trading day, that was it for the
downside as the market bounced back into the close.

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Good Trading,

Mike Reed

Monday, April 24, 2006

Market Comment 4/24/06

Dateline: 8:28 pm Eastern Time, 04/24/2006

The market opened slightly lower on Monday, and continued
selling off in the first 30 minutes of trading. The first
bounce was feeble, and selling came in around the opening
levels. The market fell back to test the early lows by late
morning, and then bounced back once again. A bounce to token
new highs for the day occurred by early afternoon, but the
move didn't stick and another little shakeout followed. The
market moved back to make its highs in the final hour before
sagging into the close.

There is quite a bit on the economic calendar this week. We
get the Consumer Confidence number 30 minutes into the
trading day on Tuesday. The Monday action was less than
impressive, so look for early strength to be sold in to on
Tuesday. Thereafter, keep an eye on the resistance and
support areas for potential turning points. Shorting the
bounces as soon as the move fizzles should continue to offer
the better risk/reward opportunities.

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Good Trading,

Mike Reed

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Market Comment 4/23/06

Dateline: 6:01 pm Eastern time, 04/23/2006


On Friday morning the SP futures reached 1324.00 and quickly
backed away. The market tried to hold into the afternoon,
but after rolling over, a steady selloff took the Nasdaq
futures to 1712.00 and the SP futures to 1312.00. That was
just 1 tick above RBI key support at the 1311.75-1311.00
area. From there, the market snapped back in the final
hour.

With the Dow and SP500 up at multi-year highs here, the
internal gauges are nowhere near confirming these prices.
While the SP and Dow ended flat on Friday, the Nasdaq was
hammered. That price action could occur in the blue chips
next.

The VIX gave multiple Sell signals on Friday. Along with
that, the market is still overbought. (The 4-Day Volume
Ratio is 0.65 for one example.) The momentum is at a stand-
still at Friday's close.

At the moment we have strong resistance on the SP futures
around 1324.75 and strong support around 1311.50. If there
is another test of the 1324.00-1324.75 area, it should fail.
On the bottom side, if we go under 1311.00 and cannot
quickly reverse, then the longs will probably go for the
exit door.

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Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Market Comment 4/18/06

Dateline: 7:31 pm Eastern Time, 4/18/2006

We will be away on Wednesday and part of Thursday.
Everyone's subscription will be extended. The next update
will be published on Thursday night.

The market gapped up on the open on Tuesday, and the move
initially had trouble at the 1299.00-1300.50 area on the SP
futures. The small pullback didn't stick, as buyers were in
line at 1297.50 on the SP futures and 1713.25 on the Nasdaq
futures, and the upside was back in gear. In trend up
fashion, the market went for the big resistance at the
1307.75-1308.50 area on the SP futures. The SP futures
reached 1307.50 while the Nasdaq futures reached 1732.00,
and then there was a pullback before the FOMC minutes. After
that release the market spiked higher and then reversed.
However, the market refused to give much ground and headed
back up. The rally lasted into the final hour with the SP
futures getting to 1316.00 and the Nasdaq futures reaching
1742.75 before a dip into the close.

It looks like the SP may want to try to test the top of this
big range, if the market didn't exhaust itself on Tuesday.
That would get the SP futures back to the 1322 area, which
is a level both the bulls and bears would like another look
at.

That might be asking for a lot. The volume picked up pace on
Tuesday, with up volume swamping down volume by more than a
9 to 1 ratio. Also, the rally lasted from the opening bell
to the closing bell, leaving all of the averages in
uptrends.Whatever the case, a bit more on the upside will
likely set the stage for another sharp drop. The RBI Sell
gate is open, and the Vix dropped almost 10% on Tuesday.

On Wednesday look for the "sell early, buy the first decent
pullback" pattern in the early going. If there is early
strength, look for a reversal no later than 20-40 minutes
into the trading day. Thereafter, as long as initial support
holds, the market should be okay and stay in uptrends.

For more information on the RBI Updates and
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resistance numbers go to:
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Monday, April 17, 2006

Market Comment 4/16/06

Dateline: 6:40 pm Eastern time, 04/16/2006


On Thursday morning, the market gapped down on the open and
fell to support on the SP futures. A quick reversal was
enough to get a rally going, and it could have been
meaningful if the rally was able to stick. But the move
fizzled before noon at the 1299.00 level, and the market
softened the remainder of the day.

The oversold status has been worked off, for the most part.
The market refused to rally under conditions that are
normally good for the bulls. We did get a couple of intraday
bounces, but the rallies aren't sticking. With the market
acting poorly, selling the bounces should continue to offer
the better intraday opportunities.

For the whole story, plus nightly accurate support and
resistance levels, subscribe to my nightly updates at:
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Dateline: 7:52 pm Eastern Time, 4/04/2006

After a flat open on Tuesday, the SP and Nasdaq futures
dropped to 1302.25 and 1721.00 respectively, and then
quickly reversed. The rebound lasted about 30 minutes, with
the move fizzling out after reaching 1309.00 on the SP
futures and 1732.75 on the Nasdaq futures. They rolled over
and fell to 1304.50 and 1724.00, then bounced back again.

There was resistance at the 1312.50-1313.50 area on the SP
futures and 1735.25-1737.75 zone on the Nasdaq futures.
Around 1pm the SP futures double topped after reaching
1313.75, while the Nasdaq turned down from a 1736.75 high.
The pullback was shallow, and the market went back to test
the highs. The Nasdaq futures matched its high while the SP
futures poked into the 1316.00- 1316.75 resistance area and
then the market sagged into the close.

The market continues to swing back and forth inside of a
trading range. The Nasdaq leveled off and went basically
sideways all of Tuesday afternoon, while the SP bounce was
labored. With the market close to the top of the range, look
to short early strength on Wednesday. Then, if the initial
support can hold on a pullback, be on look out for a
reversal. ~ Mike Reed RBI Trader's Updates

Audio/Transcript - HALF OFF!

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Stalking and Entering Trades

Hi Everyone,

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entering trades.

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trade...this book is for you!

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Good Trading,

Mike Reed

Stock Filtering and Watchlists

Question: Do you use any stock filtering to create watcthlists? If so what setups do you use?

Answer: For the most part, I day trade the stock index futures. However when trading stocks I like to scan for stocks that have relative strength greater than 70 and less than 95 over the past 3, 6, and 9 month time frames. In addition, look for stocks that are above their 50 day moving average. I oftentimes will narrow the search to stocks that are trading between $10 and $30 per share. From this list I would then look at the chart patterns to see if anything outstanding shows up. And also, based on the chart, I will find the correct spot to place a stop/loss order. Hope this helps! ~ Mike Reed - TradeStalker.com
Mike Reed
http://www.TradeStalker.com
Genuine AllExperts Expert
Check out my bio/ratings page!
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RBI Trading Camp Success Story!

RBI Trading Camp this March was great...as usual! Here's one "campers" success story:

Hi Mike,

Your camp was the last piece of the puzzle for me...I didn't realize it...but once I started to incorporate all that you showed us, I realized just how much you actually did show us...

From this past week's trading, I realize it's going to take a few more weeks(maybe a month or more...or more) for all the "rules" and nuance to become second nature. But that's OK, because I'm really amazed at how much improvement I've made...just in this last week...you know, take a trade - review, critique...take a trade, reveiw, critique...etc...kind of going along like that right now...not concerned about money...just doing one lots, sometimes 3, but keeping a short leash right now...want to concentrate on developing technique...then expand out as I become more confident

But ttechnique - Ah!...for me that was the key thing I was looking to take away from the camp - entries, exits, stop loss, targets, managing the trade...and what you showed us was exactly what I needed...made a world of difference

Mike, I really appreciate you taking the time to honestly help us less experienced traders...real mentors are few and far between and I feel fortunate to have been "guided" to you

As questions come up, believe me I won't hesitate to e-mail you...I imagine you'll be hearing a lot from me...at least for awhile

Thanks again - Brad G. ~ Washington