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TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/ 22/ 2007
(Published Since 1996)
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Dateline: 5:58 pm eastern time, 3/22/2007
We had about everything we wanted on Thursday. Last night Iwrote:
"If there is an early pop higher and it reverses, it sets up a great shorting opportunity."
The early pop reversed from 1448.50 on the SP futures and then fell 7.50 points to 1441.00. Meanwhile, the 1812.50 level was reached on the Nasdaq futures. The initial support was at the 1441.50 level on the SP futures and the 1812.00 level on the Nasdaq futures, and buyers stepped to the plate. The market rallied back to the 1449.50-1450.50 resistance area and reversed. That led to a sell off down to1444.00 and then they went for the highs again. With just over an hour left in stock trading, they reversed from that 1449.50-1450.50 resistance area once again and sold off to a 1443.50 low around 3:30 pm. There was a bounce from there, but it was without much gusto as the market seeked out middle ground going into the close.
The flattening out isn't good. There was a strong offer around that 1449.50-1450.50 zone on Thursday. On the other side, there was a good bid coming off that 1441.00 level on the SP futures and 1812.50 on the Nasdaq futures. We could go range-bound, but focus on the short side of it. The market has gotten very complacent, but the VIX did give a sell signal on Thursday.
On Friday, if the market gets back up to Thursday's highs and the move fizzles, get short for another drop down to theThursday afternoon lows, at a minimum. If those highs are broken, they would need to hold on the first pullback, otherwise it would be trouble. After things get going, if the ranges finally break, we could get a little accelerationin whichever direction the market decides to take.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell. http://www.TradeStalker.com
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Market Comment 03/21/07
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TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/21/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:06 pm Eastern time, 3/21/2007
After a flat open on Wednesday, there was a quick pop that reversed and the market sold off to 1421.00 on the SP futures. That corresponded with the 60ema on the 5 minute chart, and there was a bounce from there back to test the morning highs before the Fed release. After the release there was a quick up and back down, and then the upside took hold and the buying "fed" upon itself until making a reversal bar at 3pm. Off of a 1449.75 high, the SP futures pulled back 8.25 points to 1441.50 and then the market reversed and rallied into the close.
We get the Leading Indicators at 10am on Thursday. At Wednesday's close, the daily internal indicators were stretched to overbought extremes. The RBI Sell gate is open,and the 3 day Thrust is at +.87(+.50 normal overbought). The 4 day volume ratio closed at .70, also very stretched. Along with that, the sentiment has gotten a bit too euphoric. The VIX closed at 12.19, and is more than 10% below its 10 day average close. The futures settled well under "fair value"showing that traders aren't real comfortable being long overnight at these prices.
That said, this move has good momentum so prices would need to reverse before being too aggressive on the short side. If there is an early pop higher, and it reverses, it sets up a great shorting opportunity. If there is early weakness,buyers will need to step to the plate at the initial support areas. If they don't hold, then we could get rolling on the downside.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell. http://www.TradeStalker.com
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/21/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:06 pm Eastern time, 3/21/2007
After a flat open on Wednesday, there was a quick pop that reversed and the market sold off to 1421.00 on the SP futures. That corresponded with the 60ema on the 5 minute chart, and there was a bounce from there back to test the morning highs before the Fed release. After the release there was a quick up and back down, and then the upside took hold and the buying "fed" upon itself until making a reversal bar at 3pm. Off of a 1449.75 high, the SP futures pulled back 8.25 points to 1441.50 and then the market reversed and rallied into the close.
We get the Leading Indicators at 10am on Thursday. At Wednesday's close, the daily internal indicators were stretched to overbought extremes. The RBI Sell gate is open,and the 3 day Thrust is at +.87(+.50 normal overbought). The 4 day volume ratio closed at .70, also very stretched. Along with that, the sentiment has gotten a bit too euphoric. The VIX closed at 12.19, and is more than 10% below its 10 day average close. The futures settled well under "fair value"showing that traders aren't real comfortable being long overnight at these prices.
That said, this move has good momentum so prices would need to reverse before being too aggressive on the short side. If there is an early pop higher, and it reverses, it sets up a great shorting opportunity. If there is early weakness,buyers will need to step to the plate at the initial support areas. If they don't hold, then we could get rolling on the downside.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell. http://www.TradeStalker.com
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Market Comment 03/20/07
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TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/20/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:12 pm Eastern time, 3/20/2007
After a choppy start to the day on Tuesday, the upside got in gear and the market went up to the 1422.75-1423.50 resistance zone on the SP futures by early afternoon. After making a double top at 1423.75, there was a pullback to 1418.25 and then the market reversed and rallied back to its highs by the close.
We get the Fed decision on interest rate policy on Wednesdayat 2:15 pm Eastern time. We can look for a couple decent trades before the Fed decision. The market closed right at resistance areas on Tuesday, so an early pullback is likely.If the market opens flat on Wednesday, look for a shorting opportunity early. If that pullback occurs, then the Tuesday afternoon lows would need to hold to avoid trouble. If those areas are not broken, and held, the market will be ok. If they do break, and the market can not quickly reverse back over them, then the pressure could be on the downside into the Fed release.
After the Fed release, there tends to be a couple of quick back and forth moves, and then the market finds a direction and continues in that direction until very late in the day. Look for this to play out on Wednesday. Let the early shake-and-bake run its course, then if the market starts a trend go with it and trail a stop.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell.http://www.TradeStalker.com
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/20/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:12 pm Eastern time, 3/20/2007
After a choppy start to the day on Tuesday, the upside got in gear and the market went up to the 1422.75-1423.50 resistance zone on the SP futures by early afternoon. After making a double top at 1423.75, there was a pullback to 1418.25 and then the market reversed and rallied back to its highs by the close.
We get the Fed decision on interest rate policy on Wednesdayat 2:15 pm Eastern time. We can look for a couple decent trades before the Fed decision. The market closed right at resistance areas on Tuesday, so an early pullback is likely.If the market opens flat on Wednesday, look for a shorting opportunity early. If that pullback occurs, then the Tuesday afternoon lows would need to hold to avoid trouble. If those areas are not broken, and held, the market will be ok. If they do break, and the market can not quickly reverse back over them, then the pressure could be on the downside into the Fed release.
After the Fed release, there tends to be a couple of quick back and forth moves, and then the market finds a direction and continues in that direction until very late in the day. Look for this to play out on Wednesday. Let the early shake-and-bake run its course, then if the market starts a trend go with it and trail a stop.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell.http://www.TradeStalker.com
Market Comment 03/19/07
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TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/19/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:23 pm Eastern time, 3/19/2007
The market gapped up on Monday, but the early strength wassold about 10 minutes into the day. The SP futures dropped from 1409.50 to 1404.75, and that first dip was bought. After going back to test the highs, the market took a brief rest, then punched on through and rallied into the late morning. After the Intraday Update, the SP futures pulled back to 1410.75 (1 tick under support), and then bouncedback to test the highs. The early highs were not exceeded though, and they pulled back to 1411.00 with 30 minutes left in stock trading. With that as a floor, the market held together and the SP went to a 1416.00 high just before settlement.
We get the Fed decision on interest rate policy on Wednesday. The market looks like it wants to move higher here short term. However, we will likely get more two-sided action on Tuesday. The market will be in "buy the dip" mode unless / until there is a break and hold under the 1411.25-1410.75 zone on the SP futures. There was good buying on the pullbacks to that area on Monday. If that area is tested again on Tuesday and there is *not * another rebound, then we could roll over and retrace a good deal more of the recent rally.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell.http://www.TradeStalker.com
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/19/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:23 pm Eastern time, 3/19/2007
The market gapped up on Monday, but the early strength wassold about 10 minutes into the day. The SP futures dropped from 1409.50 to 1404.75, and that first dip was bought. After going back to test the highs, the market took a brief rest, then punched on through and rallied into the late morning. After the Intraday Update, the SP futures pulled back to 1410.75 (1 tick under support), and then bouncedback to test the highs. The early highs were not exceeded though, and they pulled back to 1411.00 with 30 minutes left in stock trading. With that as a floor, the market held together and the SP went to a 1416.00 high just before settlement.
We get the Fed decision on interest rate policy on Wednesday. The market looks like it wants to move higher here short term. However, we will likely get more two-sided action on Tuesday. The market will be in "buy the dip" mode unless / until there is a break and hold under the 1411.25-1410.75 zone on the SP futures. There was good buying on the pullbacks to that area on Monday. If that area is tested again on Tuesday and there is *not * another rebound, then we could roll over and retrace a good deal more of the recent rally.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell.http://www.TradeStalker.com
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Market Comment 03/18/07
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TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/18/2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:05 pm Eastern time, 3/18/2007
The market rallied early on Friday, but after an hour of upside the momentum was lost and the market reversed to the down side. After the early sell off, the market made a feeble attempt to come back, but it also failed. The market bottomed in the last 90 minutes of trading, and then climbed grudgingly into the close.
The market still is acting vulnerable and it won't be a surprise to see the market get hit one more time. It will be a surprise if it *doesn't* happen. Although most of the internal indicators showed bullish divergences at the Thursday low, the rally hasn't done much to get them into bullish mode.
The Friday action was less than impressive, however the day did end with uptrends. On Monday look for early strength to be sold, and then the first decent pullback could be a buying opportunity if momentum slows and then there is a reversal pattern.
Sign up for our FREE TRIAL, and you'll get my nightly marketcomment as well as consistently accurate support andresistance levels for the emini SP, Nasdaq, and Russell.http://www.TradeStalker.com
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Day Trading Webinar- Free to Attend!
Hi Folks,
We have some exciting news for you...we're going to hold a
webinar. But it gets even better than that, it's not gunna
cost you a thing to attend!
Well, we need to ask a favor from you first...don't worry,
it's no sweat.
If you've been Jones'n to ask Mike a trading question...or
three ;) now is the time! Mike has been trading for 24
years, and if you have a question, he's got an answer.
So...what are the 3 trading questions YOU'D like to ask
Mike? Please send your questions to the email below so that
we can get them organized for the webinar.
Q4Mike@TradeStalker.com
We hope to have everything set up for the webinar to be held
either the end of March or early April. Please watch your
emails for more details.
To Your Success,
Julie
jc@TradeStalker.com
We have some exciting news for you...we're going to hold a
webinar. But it gets even better than that, it's not gunna
cost you a thing to attend!
Well, we need to ask a favor from you first...don't worry,
it's no sweat.
If you've been Jones'n to ask Mike a trading question...or
three ;) now is the time! Mike has been trading for 24
years, and if you have a question, he's got an answer.
So...what are the 3 trading questions YOU'D like to ask
Mike? Please send your questions to the email below so that
we can get them organized for the webinar.
Q4Mike@TradeStalker.com
We hope to have everything set up for the webinar to be held
either the end of March or early April. Please watch your
emails for more details.
To Your Success,
Julie
jc@TradeStalker.com
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