TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 2 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 4:46 pm eastern time, 8/2/2009
The market had another good week, but on Thursday and Friday
the character changed with the market unable to hold gains.
On Friday the market rallied early, but the strength was
sold as the ES fizzled at 990.00 and sold off quickly. The
bulls held ground however, as the ES reversed from the
980.00-979.50 initial support area and bounced back to the
987-988 updated resistance. After a couple of pullbacks from
that zone reversed from around 983, the ES ran up to 989.50
and stalled/reversed and then backed off to the 984.50
level. One last run-up failed (although the ES got over 989
first) and the market closed with a sharp drop into the
close. The ES and NQ sold off into the final minutes of
trading, but the monthly "settlement at fair value" (goofy
rule) made it look like they ended better than they really
did.
The internal gauges are still in neutral, but the sentiment
is beginning to turn cautious. The market is making good
moves in both directions, however the easier side has been
the short side when the run-ups fizzle out at extended
levels. That is opposite of the bullish action we were
getting coming into Thursday morning, with the market
selling off early and then buyers rushing in and driving
prices higher into the close.
The volatility certainly has returned. On Friday we were
expecting two-sided action, and got these swings of 4 points
or more on the ES:
981.25
990.00 +8.75
979.50 -10.50
988.50 +9.00
982.75 -5.75
987.50 +4.75
983.25 -4.25
989.50 +6.25
984.50 -5.00
990.50 +6.00
981.50 -9.00
That's 69+ points of travel range, despite the last trade
being just a quarter of a point below the Thursday close. I
think we can expect this type of action to continue until
there is either a break below 965 or a break over 994 near
term. That is the range the market needs to break to get
something going in either direction as it looks right now.
On Monday focus on shorting the bounces as soon as the
upside fizzles out. If there is going to be a decent trade
on the long side, then it should occur from a lower open
that reverses to the upside. However, like late Friday, an
early rally will not stick unless there is a spark that
ignites good buying, which is unforeseen right now.
September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
985.75-986.25
989.50-990.50
992.00-992.25
994.00-995.00
September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
980.00-979.50
975.00-974.50
971.00-970.50
September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1605.50-1606.00
1618.00-1618.50
1622.50-1623.50
1627.50-1628.00
September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1597.25-1596.50
1592.50-1591.50
1587.25-1586.50
September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9
9134-9139
9172-9175
9190-9193
9205-9208
September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9
9091-9085
9043-9040
9002-8998
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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