TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 13 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:21 pm eastern time, 8/13/2009
The market popped up on Thursday morning but the move was
sold and the ES dropped from 1008.25 to 998.00 in short
order. A reversal from that level started a run-up to the
1011.75-1012.50 resistance zone. From a 1012.00 high, the ES
reversed and spilled to 1002.50 and reversed once again. The
rally started around 2 pm and from that level the ES rallied
to 1009.75 before pulling back. The dip held the 1008.00
level on the ES and it turned back up and rallied to 1014.00
just before settlement.
The amazingly resilient market has rallied back to the top
of the recent range on the SP500 cash and futures. Both the
ES and NQ closed well over fair value, so about 4 points on
the SP500 cash and 10 points on the Nasdaq 100 cash is
factored in on the upside to start Friday. We get the CPI,
Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production data before
the open on Friday and it should be a market mover.
With selling coming in at/near new high territory, and
buying coming in on the sharp pullbacks that reverse, the
intraday volatility is picking up and this should continue.
Look to be a buyer on a drop back towards the 1000 level on
the ES if/when there is a reversal pattern, and sell the
rallies after they have run for awhile and then stall out.
No damage is done unless the initial support areas are
broken, and then act as resistance on a bounce. That would
cause a transition back to the downside, and likely bring a
test of the Thursday afternoon lows. If the market gets back
down there and cannot snap back, then the weekly chart will
look poor and it could be the start of a move back to the
bottom of the range at the 990 area.
To start the day, look for early strength to set up a
shorting opportunity. If that plays out, and there is a drop
towards the 1008.75-1008.25 area and it holds/reverses, then
it will set up a trade on the long side. If that area isn't
held, a drop to the 1002.50-1001.50 area would need to hold
to avoid trouble. Should the ES get through the 1015.50-
1016.00 area and not quickly reverse, then a push towards
the 1020.00-1020.50 area is likely. Beware that if that area
is reached and rejected, it would set up a shorting
opportunity.
September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1014.00
1015.50-1016.00
1020.00-1020.50
1023.50-1024.50
September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1008.75-1008.25
1005.00-1004.50
1002.50-1001.50
998.50-997.50
September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1633.50
1637.00-1637.75
1641.75-1642.50
1647.00-1647.75
September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1624.50-1623.50
1620.25-1619.50
1616.00-1615.25
1610.50-1610.00
September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9
9393
9404-9408
9444-9449
9473-9477
September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9
9346-9341
9324-9321
9304-9299
9286-9282
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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