TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 6 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 8/6/2009
The higher open on Thursday was a "gift" short, especially
with the all 3 index futures rejecting resistance areas at
the same time. I had resistance at 1005.50-1006.25 on the
ES, 1622.50-1623.25 on the NQ, and 9289-9292 on the YM, and
with highs at 1005.75 on the ES, 1621.75 on the NQ and 9289
on the YM all rejected, it set up a fast drop. The market
didn't stabilize until reaching the 992.75-991.75 support on
the ES, and a bounce to the updated resistance at 999.00-
999.50 on the ES was sold. The ES dropped from 999.00 to
993.00 and then bounced back, but the move didn't stick and
the 993.00-992.75 zone was cut through. The ES fell to
989.75, a bit above the last support at the 988.75-987.75
zone, and turned back up. The ES reversed off of the 993.50
updated resistance on the first attempt, but after just a 2
point drop, the market turned back up and chopped its way
back to 996.25 on the ES before the close.
The market left the normally bullish end-of-month, first 2
days of a new month upside bias on Wednesday, and the market
has had trouble since then. The rejection of the 1005.50-
1006.25 area on both Wednesday and Thursday puts a lid on
top of what has been a small trading range this week. In
fact, the ES has had just a 17 point weekly range thus far.
With the market moving back and forth in a small range while
in recent new high territory is normally a bearish sign.
Volatility on an intraday basis has been present, but the
market needs to release this energy with a directional move.
On Friday we get the Employment data before the open. The
end of day pattern on Thursday was a rising wedge on both
the ES and Dow cash, so a pop up and reverse type of open
would likely start a quick drop back down. It looks like the
993.00 level on the ES would need to hold to avoid a
breakdown. For now it looks like the market needs to get
over the initial resistance and not quickly reverse to
change the trend. Until proven otherwise, the short side
should continue to offer the "easier" setups, shorting the
bounces when the upside loses its momentum and the move
stalls, as that is when the quick pullbacks/drops begin. If
the ES cannot hold on a test of the 988.75 Monday low, then
the weekly chart will not look good and there would be
resistance around the 994 level. A bounce back would need to
get back over the 994.00 level on the ES and stay over that
level on a pullback to avoid a bad close.
September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
996.50-997.50
999.50
1005.50-1006.25 **key**
1008.50-1009.00
1011.50-1012.50
September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
993.00
988.75-987.75
982.50-981.75
September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1605.75-1607.00
1610.50
1622.50-1623.25 **key**
1626.75-1627.50
1631.50-1632.50
September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1597.75
1592.75-1591.75
1585.50-1584.50
September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9
9231-9234
9254
9289-9292 **key**
9317-9322
9355-9359
September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9
9207
9164-9159
9112-9108
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
No comments:
Post a Comment