TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 20 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:41 pm eastern time, 11/20/2008
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG).
The market opened lower on Thursday as the averages spilled
to new lows for the year. After about 40 minutes of
trading, the SP futures reversed from 774.25 and rallied up
to 808.00 by 11 am, and after a little 1-2-3 top, the SP
futures dropped to 785.00 before turning back up. The rally
was a pretty good one, but the SP futures barely poked over
the 819.00 resistance while the Nasdaq futures stalled just
under 1116.50-1117.50 and then the move reversed. Selling
took the market down to the 782.00 on the SP futures where
it tried to hold, but when that was broken it went into a
steady trend down move that cut through the 750-748 area on
the way to a 745.50 low made in the final minutes of
trading.
The trend and momentum are so strong on the downside that
the charts are straight down. If turned upside down (or see
the SDS or QID) it would look like a parabolic move that
could reverse sharply. The difference is that very good mood
can be undone a lot easier than being in horrible mood. It
takes a spark, or something good that gives hope. Without a
good spark, this downtrend will keep on rolling and the
bounces will not stick.
Despite a grossly oversold market and a loss of more than
100 points on the SP500 in just 2 days, expect the bounces
to be sold as soon as the upside stalls out and begins to
roll over. The SP futures need to clear the 778.00-779.00
area and the Nasdaq futures need to clear 1065.00-1066.50
and not quickly reverse, to put a dent in the downside
momentum. Unless that occurs, the market is still vulnerable
and the bears are in control. If those are exceeded, then
the Thursday highs will be key resistance levels. It will
take a close over those highs on Friday to begin a bottoming
pattern.
The first hurdles on Friday are at the 774.50-775.00 area
the SP futures and the 1056.00-1057.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are reached and not rejected, then the
next resistance is at the 778.00-779.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1065.00-1066.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are broken and not quickly reversed, then the door
is opened for a run up towards the 785.00 level on the SP
futures and the 1075.25 level on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market happens to get through those areas without failing,
then the next key resistance is up at the 791.00-792.00 area
the SP futures and the 1081.75-1082.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. The market came apart when those areas were broken
on Thursday, and if the market gets up there it should be
hard to get through. If the market is strong enough to push
through those areas, then the next key resistance is at the
804.00-805.00 area the SP futures and the 1102.00-1103.25
area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market puts together a
rally good enough to take those areas out, then the 820-821
area is major resistance now short term.
The downside was losing a bit of momentum just before the
close, so there should be decent support at the 746.00-
745.00 area the SP futures and the 1033.00-1031.25 area on
the Nasdaq futures. If the market doesn't turn back up from
those areas, then finding real significant support doesn't
occur until there's another sizable drop. There should be
some support near the 738.00-737.00 area the SP futures and
the 1024.50-1023.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are
broken, then a drop towards the 723.00-722.00 area the SP
futures and the 1010.00-1007.50 area on the Nasdaq futures
could be a magnet. If those do not hold, then we could see
another panic selloff. The major support if the market gets
hit hard again is near the 696.50-695.00 area on the SP
futures and/or the 980.00-978.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
774.50-775.00
778.00-779.00
785.00
791.00-792.00
804.00-805.00
820.00-821.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
746.00-745.00
738.00-737.00
723.00-722.00
696.50-695.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1056.00-1057.00
1065.00-1066.50
1075.25
1081.75-1082.50
1102.00-1103.25
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1033.00-1031.25
1024.50-1023.00
1010.00-1007.50
980.00-978.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
7754-7758
7806-7812
7849
7931-7939
8034-8042
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
7474-7469
7402-7394
7268-7260
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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