TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 9 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:56 pm eastern time, 11/9/2008
We came in to Friday looking to short early strength. The SP
futures had a pop up open and then they reversed from 916.25
about 5 minutes into trading. The SP futures pulled back to
the Thursday close and then buying came in after reaching
905.00 and they ran up to 929.50, just under the 931.00-
932.00 resistance zone. The market pulled back, but the
updated support at 916 held (916.50 pullback low) and then
the SP futures bounced back to the 925 level. That turned
into a lid and there were 5 scalp opportunities on the short
side off that level. It was finally broken and the SP
futures ran up to 929.75 and stalled, and that offered a
good trade on the short side. The SP futures fell to 907.75
before reversing with 35 minutes left in stock trading.
Then, the worst "call" of the week/month was given when I
advised to avoid longs in the last 30 minutes. That was the
opposite of what we should have done as the market rallied
back to make its highs for the day at the close.
The averages had inside days on Friday, after falling more
than 100 points on the SP500 over 2 days. It took until the
last 30 minutes, but the market ended up making something
that looks like a decent trading low. The late day move must
prove itself strong by not giving back gains so easily. If
that occurs early this week, then we could rally back
towards the top of the big range the market is currently in.
If the market cannot follow through and instead further
strength is sold, then a pullback towards the Friday
afternoon lows must hold, otherwise the downside could again
gather some steam.
On Monday, look for a shorting opportunity if there is early
strength as soon as the move stalls and begins to roll
over. This would set up best if the initial resistance is
rejected. If that plays out, then the initial support areas
should hold and set up a buying opportunity if the market is
going to avoid more trouble.
The initial resistance is at the 940.00-941.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1294.50-1296.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market pops up there and reverses in the
first 20 minutes on Monday, then it sets up a good shorting
opportunity. If the market goes through those areas without
a problem, then the next hurdles would be at the 946.00-
946.50 area on the SP futures and the 1302.00-1303.00 area
on the Nasdaq futures. If those are not rejected, then the
957.50-958.50 area on the SP futures and the 1316.50-1318.00
area on the Nasdaq futures would be next. If the market gets
up there and isn't reversed, then the key resistance on
Monday is at the 965.25-966.00 area on the SP futures and
the 1327.50-1328.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market gets up there, beware of a reversal. If that doesn't
happen, then we could be in a little melt-up move and head
towards the 976.00-977.00 area on the SP futures and the
1334.75-1335.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 929.25-928.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1280.00-1278.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those areas are not bought, then a pullback towards the
921.00-920.50 area on the SP futures and the 1265.00-1264.00
area on the Nasdaq futures is likely. The market needs to
hold those areas to avoid trouble. If buyers don't hold
those areas, then the 917.25-916.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1257.00-1256.00 area on the Nasdaq futures is key
support. If the market cannot hold those late Friday low
areas, then another drop towards the 908.00-907.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1249.75-1248.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures is possible. Those will need to be quickly reversed
if broken to avoid a drop back towards the 898-897 area on
the SP futures.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
940.00-941.00
946.00-946.50
957.50-958.50 ** could be pivotal
965.25-966.00
976.00-977.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
929.25-928.50
921.00-920.50
917.25-916.50
908.00-907.50
898-897
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1294.50-1296.00
1302.00-1303.00
1316.50-1318.00 ** could be pivotal
1327.50-1328.50
1334.75-1335.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1280.00-1278.50
1265.00-1264.00
1257.00-1256.00
1249.75-1248.25
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
9018-9024
9072-9078
9164-9171 ** could be pivotal
9240-9246
9334-9341
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8911-8907
8852-8846
8811-8806
8731-8724
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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