TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 13 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 8:32 pm eastern time, 11/13/2008
The market didn't open bad like it looked like it would on
Thursday, but after a bounce the SP futures pulled back to
846.25 and then tried to get a rally going. The bounce
fizzled and the market went back to test the lows. After
holding just above the lows, the market gave way and a sharp
drop to 816.75 on the SP futures and 1108.50 on the Nasdaq
futures was in gear and then the move was reversed. The
first bounce was rejected at 836.00, and after a small
pullback the market got legs and the upside was in gear. The
move cleared the 856.50-858.00 zone and that brought in more
buying as the move ran almost straight to 882.00 on the SP
futures. That 858 level turned into support on a pullback,
and the market found another gear and rallied strong into
the close.
The SP500 and Nasdaq 100 cash and futures went well below
the October lows before the reversal on Thursday. The Dow
made a higher low by about 83 points. This leaves the
averages making "W" patterns on the daily charts. The Dow
made a 1-2-3 bottom pattern. Now we need to see if this is
just a bounce from the bottom of a very big trading range,
or the real McCoy and the start of a rally into year's end.
We get the Retail Sales number before the open on Friday.
The trend and momentum are now in the bulls favor, however
the first good trade should set up on the short side if
there is some early strength on Friday. Off of the early
afternoon lows on Thursday, the market rallied 97.00 points
on the ES, 135.25 points on the NQ, and 932 points on the
YM. That happened in just 3 hours, so some pullback should
be in order, even if it's just backing up to get a running
start for another leg higher. So, look to short early
strength if the move stalls and reverses in the first 20-40
minutes on Friday. If that plays out, beware that the first
decent pullback should set up a buying opportunity.
The initial resistance is at the 914.00 level on the SP
futures and 1243.75 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those
Thursday highs are exceeded then there should be pretty
strong resistance around the 917.25-918.00 area on the SP
futures and 1251.50-1253.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
the market pops up there in the early going and reverses, it
could start a 10-12 point pullback, at least. However, a
clean break through those areas will open the door for a
test of the 926.50-927.50 area on the SP futures and
1264.50-1266.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. Those areas are
key on Friday. If the market doesn't back off from those
areas, then we could head towards the 939.50-941.00 area on
the SP futures and 1281.50-1284.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures.
The initial support is at the 901.00-900.00 area on the SP
futures and 1227.00-1226.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
there is no follow through buying, then those areas will
need to hold or else the market could be rolling over for a
sharper pullback. The next support would be near the 895.50-
894.50 area on the SP futures and 1219.00-1218.00 area on
the Nasdaq futures. If a pullback can not turn back up from
there, then the 883.00-882.00 area on the SP futures and
1205.00-1203.50 area on the Nasdaq futures would be next.
That is as far as a normal pullback should go if the market
is still in good shape. If those areas are broken, and not
quickly reversed, then a drop towards the 860.00-858.50 area
on the SP futures and 1172.50-1169.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures is in the cards and would need to hold to avoid a
bad end to the week.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
914.00
917.25-918.00
926.50-927.50
939.50-941.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
901.00-900.00
895.50-894.50
883.00-882.00
860.00-858.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1243.75
1251.50-1253.00
1264.50-1266.50
1281.50-1284.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1227.00-1226.00
1219.00-1218.00
1205.00-1203.50
1172.50-1169.50
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8877
8914-8922
8996-9004
9158-9169
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8718-8711
8688-8680
8538-8533
8322-8308
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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