TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 10 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:12 pm eastern time, 11/10/2008
We came into Monday looking to short early strength as soon
as the move stalled and began to roll over. The SP futures
gapped up on the open and reached 952.00 and then reversed
in the first 5 minutes of trading. It then turned into a
trend down day into early afternoon, when the SP futures
bounced off 911.50 and then chopped higher. A rising wedge
pattern was formed and after fizzling and reversing from
926.25, the SP futures reversed and a pretty sharp drop to
new lows for the day occurred. Buying and short covering
came in in the last hour and the market rallied into the
close.
The action on Monday was lethargic at best. The market was
trend down into the afternoon on buyers' indifference it
seemed. The late bounce came from a test of the Friday low
on the SP futures. Some of the short term internal gauges
are compressed at Monday's close. Also, the VIX was up more
than 10% on Monday so some fear was present even though the
market wasn't hurt too badly. As long as the market doesn't
break the Monday lows, the bulls should be in charge on
Tuesday.
Look for the "sell early, buy the first pullback" type of
action to start Tuesday. If the market pops up and the move
stalls / reverses in the first 20 minutes, it should set up
a shorting opportunity. If the first pullback can hold above
the Monday low areas, then the market will be in shape for a
decent rally. If those low areas are not defended, it could
start another sharp selloff as the downside picks up some
momentum.
The initial resistance is at the 925.75-926.25 area on the
SP futures and the 1261.75-1262.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. Those were sold on Monday, so if the market doesn't
get rejected from there again, then the next hurdles would
be up at the 935.50-936.25 area on the SP futures and the
1274.50-1274.75 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas
are broken and the market can keep going, then the key
resistance on Tuesday is at the 951.50-952.25 area on the SP
futures and the 1299.50-1300.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market gets that far and doesn't reverse, then the
key hurdles are at the 957.50-958.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1316.50-1318.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
somehow the market gets wings, then there should be
resistance at the 965.25-966.00 area on the SP futures and
the 1327.50-1328.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. Major
resistance is up at the 976.00-977.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1334.75-1335.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The first good support is at the 905.50-905.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1235.50-1234.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are tested and not quickly reversed, then
we could go for the 897.00 level on the SP futures and the
1224.50 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those are tested the
market needs to quickly reverse back to the upside to avoid
trouble. If they do not turn around from those areas, then a
drop towards the 892.50-891.50 area on the SP futures and
the 1216.50-1214.75 area on the Nasdaq futures is likely. If
a selloff to those areas cannot hold, then it opens the door
for a drop towards the 882.00-880.50 area on the SP futures
and/or the 1198.50-1197.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
925.75-926.25
935.50-936.25
951.50-952.25
957.50-958.50
965.25-966.00
976.00-977.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
905.50-905.00
897.00
892.50-891.50
882.00-880.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1261.75-1262.50
1274.50-1274.75
1299.50-1300.50
1316.50-1318.00
1327.50-1328.50
1334.75-1335.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1235.50-1234.50
1224.50
1216.50-1214.75
1198.50-1197.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8920-8925
9008-9013
9132-9138
9164-9171
9240-9246
9334-9341
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8730-8724
8648
8616-8611
8526-8517
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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