TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 19 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:22 pm eastern time, 11/19/2008
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
A lower open was bought on Wednesday, but the bounce stalled
and reversed from a good resistance area (8500 on Dow cash,
864.50-866.00 on SP futures) and a trend down move was just
beginning. The market dropped steadily into late afternoon,
taking out the Tuesday lows in the process. After falling to
819.00 on the SP futures, they bounced back to the 835.50-
836.50 zone and the move stalled out. A quick drop to 825.75
was reversed, but the SP futures reversed after tagging
836.50 and then collapsed to a new low for the year at
804.50. The cash indices closed at their lows while the
futures bounced back to settle well above fair value.
The SP500 cash broke down on the line-on-close chart and now
needs to close over 852 for the market to get into neutral
territory. However, the market is at a spot where we could
see a decent counter-trend rally. The daily internal gauges
are now at short term extremes on the oversold side. It
could help prop the market up and possibly give us a decent
trade on the long side. However, unless the SP futures can
crack the 835.50-837.00 zone and not quickly reverse, the
bears are in control. If there is a rally back to that area,
the market needs to push through and not quickly reverse.
Unless that occurs, shorting the bounces should offer the
better odds as they are with the momentum and trend.
The first hurdles on Thursday are at the 819.00 level on the
SP futures and the 1107.25 level on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are cleared then the door would be opened for a test
of the 825.75-826.25 area on the SP futures and the 1116.50-
1117.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are tested
early, be alert for a reversal. If the market gets back up
there and doesn't reverse, then we could see a rally towards
the 835.50-837.00 area on the SP futures and the 1129.00-
1130.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. Another reversal from
that area would keep the pressure on the downside. However,
if the market is strong enough to push through those zones,
then we could see a squeeze towards the 843.75-844.75 area
on the SP futures and the 1147.00-1148.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market gets in a buying mode and those areas
are broken, then the 850.50-852.50 area on the SP futures
could be a magnet and would be a key, and pivotal,
resistance area.
The initial support is at the 804.25-802.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1082.75-1079.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the futures open lower, those should be key areas. If the
market breaks those support areas, beware that a reversal
back up through those areas could spark a decent rally. If
that does not happen and instead the market keeps dropping,
then we could see the downside snowball towards the 790.50-
789.50 area on the SP futures and the 1068.50-1066.00 area
on the Nasdaq futures. IF the market gets down there, be a
buyer as soon as there is a turn to the upside and put a
stop just under the low that was made, as the downside would
be stretched unless the market is somehow crashing out of
the basement floor. If we get that kind of action, then we
are likely going to see the 772-768 area on the SP500 cash
on this leg down.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
819.00
825.75-826.25
835.50-837.00
843.75-844.75
850.50-852.50
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
804.25-802.00
790.50-789.50
772-768 {SP500 cash}
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1107.25
1116.50-1117.50
1129.00-1130.00
1147.00-1148.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1082.75-1079.50
1068.50-1066.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8098
8174-8178
8275-8282
8326-8331
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
7970-7955
7854-7844
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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