TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 12 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:58 pm eastern time, 11/12/2008
Last night I stated:
"The market is in a big range and another test of
the 843 level on the SP futures could be in the
cards before a more sustainable rebound occurs."
I also stated this about the key 887.00-886.50 area on the
SP futures:
"...If that is broken [the 887.00-886.50 area] and
not quickly reversed, then the Tuesday lows would
need to hold to avoid potential trouble and
another sharp downdraft.
The SP futures opened under that key 887.00-886.50 area and
after a bounce to 885.75, the market rolled back over. The
move down was steady most of the day, with a few
countertrend bounces that were sold as soon as the move
fizzled. The SP futures reached 848.50 with about 30 minutes
left in trading and then the market churned into the close.
After the bell, earnings reports are going to cause trouble
for the market early on Thursday. The yearly low on the SP
and Nasdaq futures should be a lay-up in the early going. At
some point soon, the market will put together a good trading
low. Not yet however, as there could be a bit of
capitulation first.
On Thursday continue to focus on the short side unless/until
there is a good reversal of trend. A gap down open that can
reverse in the first 20 minutes could set up a decent trade
on the long side. If that plays out, beware that the first
decent bounce will likely be sold. If the market runs up to
fill gaps on the daily charts and the bounce
stalls/reverses, then the downtrend should reassert itself.
If the market gaps down on the open on Thursday, then the
initial resistance would be near the 848.50-850.00 area on
the SP futures and the 1159.00-1161.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If a bounce gets back there but is rejected, then
another push on the downside should be coming. If the market
gets through those areas easily, then the next hurdle would
be the 858.50-859.00 area on the SP futures and the 1177.50-
1178.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are
convincingly broken, then we could see the move extend
towards the 868.00 level on the SP futures and the 1185.50
level on the Nasdaq futures. If those are not a problem,
then the 875.00-876.00 area on the SP futures and the
1199.50-1201.00 area on the Nasdaq futures are key
resistance zones. It's a long shot that those are reached,
however if something sparks a good rally and those are
exceeded, then major resistance for this move is at the
884.00-885.00 area on the SP futures and the 1212.50-1213.25
area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support on Thursday is at the 844.00-843.00 area
on the SP futures and the 1148.50-1147.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are broken and not quickly reversed, then
the pressure should be on. There should be some support near
the 839.50-838.50 area on the SP futures and the 1138.50-
1137.50 area on the Nasdaq futures, but the next key support
areas are down at the 835.00-834.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1132.50-1130.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market gets down there and then turns back up, we could get
a decent bounce from that area. However, if those areas
cannot hold, then another push lower towards the 825.00-
824.00 area on the SP futures and the 1128.50-1127.50 area
on the Nasdaq futures could be in the cards. If the market
doesn't find buyers at those areas, then it looks like a
test or break of the 2002 low at 768.63 on the SP500 cash
could be in the works. The 812.00-810.50 area on the SP
futures could offer support if that test is not going to
happen.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
848.50-850.00
858.50-859.00
868.00
875.00-876.00
884.00-885.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
844.00-843.00
839.50-838.50
835.00-834.00
825.00-824.00
768.63 {SP500 cash}
812.00-810.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1159.00-1161.00
1177.50-1178.50
1185.50
1199.50-1201.00
1212.50-1213.25
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1148.50-1147.25
1138.50-1137.50
1132.50-1130.50
1128.50-1127.50
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8245-8252
8336-8341
8425
8474-8482
8575-8580
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8205-8197
8162-8154
8106-8098
8037-8031
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Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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