TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
10 / 14 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:44 pm eastern time, 10/14/2008
We came into Tuesday wanting to short early strength as soon
as the move reversed. The market had big gap up opens, but
the strength was sold and the SP futures dropped from
1057.50 to 995.00 in just over an hour into the day. After a
bounce, that low was tested and the market turned up and the
market rallied into early afternoon. A channel formed and
after reaching 1022.00 on the SP futures, the market rolled
over again. The channel broke and it brought on a selloff to
974.25 on the SP futures. That was a fib .382 retracement
from last week's 838.50 low to Tuesday morning's 1057.50
high, and the market reversed course. The 998.50-1000.00
area was rejected on the first try to get out of trouble,
and the SP futures fell from 997.50 to 987.50. Buying came
in and cut through that 998.50-1000.00 area on the SP
futures and they rallied to 1011.25 before softening into
the close.
On Wednesday we get CPI and Retail Sales before the open and
also the Fed's Beige Book at 2pm eastern time. The market is
trying to digest the huge moves from last week and this week
thus far, and find new ground where traders feel some
comfort. The Tuesday lows should be important on Wednesday.
If they hold on a pullback, then we could have another good
rally attempt coming. However, if those Tuesday lows do not
hold, then we could go down to test the key support at the
955-954 area on the SP futures.
On Wednesday, if there is early strength, look for a
shorting opportunity if the move reverses in the first 20-40
minutes of trading. If that plays out, a test of the Tuesday
low areas that reverses would set up a good buying
opportunity. If the market instead opens lower, then a
reversal back up in the first 20-40 minutes should set up a
good buying opportunity. After the early going, the market
should find a trend that lasts for awhile, maybe into the
lunchtime trading, and then there should be a reaction when
the Fed's Beige Book is released at 2pm eastern time.
The initial resistance is at the 1007.50-1008.00 area on the
SP futures and 1390.50-1391.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are cleared and not quickly reversed, then the
1011.00 and 1397.00 levels are next. If a pop to those
levels isn't sold, then a move up to the 1021.50-1022.75
area on the SP futures and 1422.50-1425.25 area on the
Nasdaq futures could be in the cards. A bounce will go no
further if the market is still vulnerable. If those areas
are reached, and not rejected, then the next hurdles are at
the 1027.50-1028.00 area on the SP futures and 1427.50-
1429.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets over,
and holds, those areas, then we could run towards the
1057.50-1058.00 area on the SP futures and 1476.00-1477.00
area on the Nasdaq futures and see how the market acts of a
test of the Tuesday opening ranges.
The initial support is at the 1000.00-999.00 area on the SP
futures and 1377.00-1376.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those zones are not defended, then there is minor support
around the 993.00 level on the SP futures and 1372.50 level
on the Nasdaq futures. If the market breaks below those
levels, and doesn't snap right back, then a move towards the
988.00 level on the SP futures and 1366.00 level on the
Nasdaq futures is in the cards. If those don't hold, then
the 975.00-974.00 area on the SP futures and 1358.50-1356.00
area on the Nasdaq futures are key support areas. A reversal
there sets up a double bottom at a good support zone and
could start a good rally. If those areas do not hold, then
the 955.00-954.00 area on the SP futures is the first key
area that must hold. If that is broken, and the market
doesn't turn around quickly, then we could gravitate towards
the 943.00-942.00 area on the SP futures and if the market
can hold and reverse from there, it's a very good entry on
the long side.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1007.50-1008.00
1011.00
1021.50-1022.75
1027.50-1028.00
1057.50-1058.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1000.00-999.00
993.00
988.00
975.00-974.00
962.00-961.00
955.00-954.00
943.00-942.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1390.50-1391.50
1397.00
1422.50-1425.25
1427.50-1429.50
1476.00-1477.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1377.00-1376.00
1372.50
1366.00
1358.50-1356.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
9399-9405
9387
9513-9522
9621-9629
9863-9869
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
9298-9292
9257
9201
9085-9078
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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