TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
10 / 5 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:29 pm eastern time, 10/5/2008
The market opened higher on Friday and stayed over the
initial resistance and it was basically a trend up move into
the early afternoon. However, after the SP futures were
rejected from just under the 1161.50-1162.00 zone (1161.00
high), it was time to short the market. The SP futures
popped up to 1159.00 and reversed, and the market went trend
down into the close. The SP futures reached the 1102.50-
1100.50 support zone and there was a small bounce into
settlement.
Buyers backed away Friday afternoon and off of the early
afternoon highs, the ES fell 58.50 points, while the NQ lost
87 points and the YM dropped 496 points into the close.
Every index closed at a new multi-year low. The daily
indicators are getting very oversold again. However, with
the new lows on Friday, the market is in deeper trouble than
even I originally felt IF the market cannot hold the 1077-
1076 area on the SP500 cash.
The October 10-11 timeframe could also be important. The
market tends to have a memory for important turns. In that
timeframe we have the 10/10/02 bear market low at 768.63 on
the SP500 cash, and the 10/11/07 all-time high on the SP500
cash at 1576.09. If the market makes a low near the end of
the week at a logical support area (1077-1076, 1062-1060, or
972-970 if we have a crashette) and then turns up, it's
possible that we could look back and see that as an
important turn in the market.
In the meantime, something needs to happen to spark a rally,
otherwise this downside could begin to feed upon itself. As
it stands right now, it will take a break and hold over the
1130.50-1131.00 area on the SP futures to put a dent in the
downside momentum.
On Monday, if the market opens lower, it must reverse in the
first 15 minutes in order to avoid a continuation to test
the big support area on the SP futures. If the market gets
down to the 1077-1076 area on the SP futures and then turn
up, it could be the start of a good rebound. However, if the
market opens higher, beware that the first bounce will
likely be sold as soon as the upside momentum fizzles. Until
proven otherwise, shorting the bounces should still offer
the better odds trades.
The initial resistance is at the 1123.50-1124.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1503.00-1504.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market doesn't reverse from those areas
early, then the first big hurdles are at the 1130.50-1131.00
area on the SP futures and the 1518.50-1519.75 area on the
Nasdaq futures. If those areas are not a problem then we
could see a run towards the 1138.75-1139.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1535.50-1536.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market is strong enough to get through those areas
and not quickly reverse, then the 1156.00 level on the SP
futures and the 1552.50 level on the Nasdaq futures would be
next. The major resistance is now at the 1160.50-1161.50
area on the SP futures and the 1560.50-1561.75 area on the
Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1102.50-1100.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1474.75-1472.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are cut through and the market doesn't quickly
reverse, then we could head for the 1088.50-1087.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1459.50-1458.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market doesn't reverse from those areas,
then major support is at the 1077.00-1076.00 area on the SP
Cash and the 1445.00-1442.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market gets down there and reverses, it could set up
a good reversal. If that area isn't reversed, then we have
another crashette day with the 1062-1060 area on the SP500
Cash as the last good support at this time.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1123.50-1124.00
1130.50-1131.00
1138.75-1139.50
1156.00
1160.50-1161.50
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1102.50-1100.50
1088.50-1087.50
1077.00-1076.00 {SP500 cash} MAJOR
1062-1060 {SP500 cash} 8/13/04 low area
972-970 if a crash-ette
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1503.00-1504.00
1518.50-1519.75
1535.50-1536.50
1552.50
1560.50-1561.75
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1474.75-1472.50
1459.50-1458.00
1445.00-1442.50
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
10530-10535
10586-10591
10667-10672
10770
10821-10827
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
10331-10319
10202-10194
10084-10076
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
No comments:
Post a Comment