TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
10 / 9/ 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 10/9/2008
The market opened higher on Thursday, but after about 20
minutes the market rolled over and sold off to 963.50 on the
SP futures before noon. The market bounced back to 991.50
before noon and then churned sideways into the late
afternoon. With a little over an hour left in stock trading,
the SP futures began to roll over. The SP futures made a
half-hearted attempt to double bottom, but after a bounce
off 961.00 failed, the low was broken and the market
cascaded lower. Only the closing bell could stop the
bleeding as the market had yet another crashette day.
I mentioned earlier in the week that a low could come in the
October 10-13 timeframe. We will see, but a bounce of some
sort should occur soon. The VIX closed at 63.92 on Thursday,
which is near the 1987 high for that indicator. The other
internal gauges are at levels not seen decades, if ever. For
one, the 13 day rate of change on the SP500 cash is -24.6%.
That is a normal bear market, compressed into a 2 1/2 week
timeframe. Anyhow, the market is historically oversold, and
if this market is going to turn around in this timeframe we
need a spark.
On Friday, if there is early strength, it should be a gift
on the short side. If on the other hand the market opens
lower and then reverses back up in the first 20-40 minutes,
then it could start a decent rally. Shorting the bounces
will be the better odds trade until the market gets turned
around. In order to start a bottoming process, the market
needs to close over the high of the low day. If the Thursday
lows are not broken, then a close over 1009.50 on the SP
futures would be needed to start a bottoming process.
Look for resistance at the 938.50-940.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1300.00-1303.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are cleared and held then the 961.00-963.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1338.50-1340.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are not a problem, then the next hurdles
are at the 988.50-991.00 area on the SP futures and the
1362.50-1365.00 zones. The key resistance is at the 1009.50-
1010.50 area on the SP futures and the 1373.00-1375.00 area
on the Nasdaq futures.
There is minor support at the 906.00 level on the SP futures
and the 1262.50 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those break,
then the 900.50-899.50 area on the SP futures and the
1258.50-1256.50 area on the Nasdaq futures could be magnets.
A drop to the 876.00-875.00 area on the SP futures and the
1234.00-1232.00 area on the Nasdaq futures must hold,
otherwise the market could have another crashette day.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
938.50-940.00
961.00-963.50
988.50-991.00
1009.50-1010.50
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
906.00
900.50-899.50
876.00-875.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1300.00-1303.00
1338.50-1340.00
1362.50-1365.00
1373.00-1375.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1262.50
1258.50-1256.50
1234.00-1232.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8878-8892
9090-9103
9263-9275
9468-9476
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8539
8482-8476
8272-8264
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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