TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
10 / 2 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:48 pm eastern time, 10/2/2008
NOTE: There will be no Intraday Updates after 2pm
eastern time on Friday. I'll be at my son's football game.
The market opened lower on Thursday and the 1153-1152 zone
was sliced through and it turned the trends down. Without a
hint of turning, the downside continued until reaching
1125.50 on the SP futures. The market turned around and the
SP futures went on a run up to 1139.75, but the move fizzled
and the downside continued. It was a choppy trend down move
to the support at the 1119-1118 area on the SP futures and
the 1502-1500 area on the Nasdaq futures. A bounce off of
the 1119.50 level on the SP futures and the 1499.50 level on
the Nasdaq futures around 2:40 pm eastern time failed and
the futures went to lower lows before bouncing back into
settlement.
On Thursday the NYSE Composite made a new low close for the
year, as did the Value Line and Nasdaq 100 indices. The Dow
and SP500 did not make a new low for the year. The VIX
jumped again to close over 45, a rare site that is only
exceeded by the readings in 1987. The market just ground
lower on Thursday and a faster drop that reversed on good
volume would have been better to form a bottom.
This last leg down began with an August high and it should
lead to an October low. The SP500 cash lost 30% which is
close to the norm. There could be more downside coming,
possibly to the 1077 area on the SP500, but the market
shouldn't be too far away from a good rally, and possibly a
good bottom. Another big plunge that can reverse from near
that 1077 area might be what's needed to finish this
downside.
We get the Employment report before the open on Friday.
Unless the market can break and hold over the initial
resistance, the bears are in the driver's seat and the short
side should offer the better trades. However, if there is a
break and hold over the initial resistance, the market could
get a decent rally going.
The initial resistance is at the 1229.00-1129.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1515.00-1515.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market cannot get through those areas, the
pressure is still on the market. If those are cleared and
not quickly reversed, then the next big resistance is at the
1139.75-1140.75 area on the SP futures and the 1529.25-
1531.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market is strong
enough to get through those areas, then the key resistance
on Friday is at the 1151.50-1152.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1551.00-1552.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If there
is a big rally, then we could see the 1161.50-1162.00 area
on the SP futures and the 1563.50-1564.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures.
The initial support is at the 1115.50-1114.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1495.50-1494.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market cannot hold those areas, then a test of the
1108.00 level on the SP futures and the 1485.00 level on the
Nasdaq futures is likely in the cards. If the market can
reverse from around those areas, we could see a decent snap-
back rally occur. If they cannot hold around those levels,
then a drop to the 1102.50-1100.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1478.00-1476.50 area on the Nasdaq futures would
need to hold to avoid a trip towards the 1077-1074 area on
the SP500 cash. If the market gets down there, it will be
time to look for buying opportunities at what could turn out
to be bargain prices for a good year end rally.
NOTE: There will be no Intraday Updates after 2pm
eastern time on Friday. I'll be at my son's football game.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1229.00-1129.50
1139.75-1140.75
1151.50-1152.50
1161.50-1162.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1115.50-1114.50
1108.00
1102.50-1100.50
1077-1074 {SP500 cash}
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1515.00-1515.75
1529.25-1531.00
1551.00-1552.25
1563.50-1564.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1495.50-1494.00
1485.00
1478.00-1476.50
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
10585-10589
10668-10678
10738-10744
10807-10814
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
10468-10460
10408
10342-10334
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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