TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
7 / 17 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:04 pm eastern time, 7/17/2008
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The market gapped up on Thursday but after about 10 minutes
of trading the SP futures reversed from the 1258.00-1258.50
resistance zone. After pulling back to 1246.75, the SP
futures bounced to 1253.75 (just under the updated 1254
resistance) and reversed again. The selling took the market
down to the Wednesday settlement areas, and off of a 1241.00
low the market reversed back to the upside. The market
rallied about half way back, and the SP futures turned back
down from 1252.25. The pullback held at 1245.25 on the SP
futures and the market started a better rally. The 1258.50
level was broken, and held on a pullback, and then SP
futures ran up to 1263.00. That was just under the 1263.50-
1264.00 resistance and when the 1258.50 level was broken
they continued to go lower until reaching the 1252.25 level.
Things turned very choppy in the last hour, and while the
cash indexes rallied into the close, the futures plunged to
settle well below fair value.
After the bell Goggle announced earnings and it has the
market trading lower. The SP futures closed about 9 points
below fair value, and well below the SP500 cash close. The
Nasdaq futures settled about 20 points below the Nasdaq 100
cash close. After 2 good rally days, the market is going to
get hit hard early on Friday. Aside from the late day
damage, my RBI Sell gate is open. When this signal kicks in
it tends to offer great shorting opportunities.
On Friday morning, if the weakness holds overnight, look for
a rally attempt to occur in the first half hour of trading.
Just don't overstay your welcome on the long side, as the
first decent bounce that stalls out and/or reverses on
Friday should offer a very good shorting opportunity. The
1262.50-1263.00 area on the SP futures must be exceeded, and
not quickly reversed, to nullify the bearish pattern on
Friday.
If the market opens lower, then look for resistance at the
1251.50-1252.00 area on the SP futures and 1836.00-1837.00
area on the Nasdaq futures. Those areas will be sold if the
market is weak. If those areas are broken, and the market
doesn't quickly reverse, then a test of the 1262.50-1263.00
area on the SP futures and 1859.75-1860.25 area on the
Nasdaq futures could be in the cards. If that occurs, and
the move stalls or reverses, get short with a pretty tight
stop. If those areas are not a problem, then we could see a
move to the 1265.50-1266.00 area on the SP futures and
1865.75-1866.25 area on the Nasdaq futures before the market
turns back down.
There is minor support at the 1245.50 level on the SP
futures and 1824.50 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those
are cut through, then the 1241.00-1240.25 area on the SP
futures and 1818.25-1817.75 area on the Nasdaq futures will
need to be quickly reversed or else the market is in some
trouble. The next support is at the 1233.75-1233.25 area on
the SP futures and 1807.75-1807.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market gets there, and still can not turn
around, then a spill towards the 1224.50-1224.00 and/or
1798.25-1797.50 areas could be in the cards.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1251.50-1252.00
1262.50-1263.00
1265.50-1266.00
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1245.50
1241.00-1240.25
1233.75-1233.25
1224.50-1224.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1836.00-1837.00
1859.75-1860.25
1865.75-1866.25
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1818.25-1817.75
1807.75-1807.00
1798.25-1797.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11384-11387
11437-11443
11471-11476
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11337
11302-11298
11210-11205
11097-11094
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
690.40-691.10
697.10-697.50
699.80-700.20
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
684.20
682.80-682.50
674.50-673.80
667.30-666.80
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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