TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
7 / 10 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:08 pm eastern time, 7/10/2008
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The early game-plan for Thursday was to look for a trade on
the long side if there was early weakness that reversed, but
weren't going to fall in love with the long side. The market
opened slightly lower on Thursday and quickly reversed, as
the SP futures bounced from 1243.75 to the 1253.75 in the
first 25 minutes of trading. The initial resistance was at
1254.00, and the move stalled and reversed from just under
that level. The selling took the SP futures to a new low for
the year, reaching 1237.50 and then the move stalled and
reversed. After a little struggle at the early high, the SP
futures pulled back to the 1246.50 updated support and
quickly reversed. The SP futures ran up to the 1258.00-
1258.50 resistance zone and the move lost steam. After poke
up to 1258.75 was rejected, the market started selling off.
The channel that had formed was broken, and the downside
accelerated as the SP futures dropped to a token lower low
at 1237.00 with just over an hour left in stock trading. The
market bounced back up to the area of the breakdown, with
the SP futures reaching 1251.00 and then after pulling back
to 1243.25 the market bounced back nicely into the close.
The SP futures made a double bottom and closed on a good
note on Thursday. The SP futures have been in a wide range
between basically 1278 on top to 1237 on the bottom. They
ended the day near the middle of that range. This kind of
volatility tends to occur near market bottoms, while it's
usually the opposite (low volatility and narrow ranges) at
tops. In any case, it looks like the market is safe as long
as the 1237 level on the SP futures isn't broken.
We get the Michigan sentiment survey 30 minutes into the
trading day on Friday. If there is follow through strength,
and the move stalls and reverses in the early going, then it
should set up a trade on the short side. Thereafter, look
for the first decent selloff to set up a buying opportunity.
With the market swinging both ways, look for the quick
rallies to fizzle for shorting opportunities, and the sharp
drops that reverse to set up trades on the long side.
The initial resistance is at the 1258.50 level on the SP
futures and 1852.75 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those
are broken, then buying dips will likely be in order. The
next good resistance would be near the 1265.00-1265.50 area
on the SP futures and 1864.00-1865.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are reached, and the market doesn't
reverse, then the next big hurdles would be at the 1270.00-
1270.50 area on the SP futures and 1868.50-1869.50 area on
the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets up there, and still
doesn't reverse, then the major resistance on Friday is at
the 1278.00-1278.75 area on the SP futures and 1876.75-
1877.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1243.50-1243.00 area on the SP
futures and 1828.00-1827.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Those areas will hold if the market is in decent shape. If
they don't hold, then the major support is at the 1237.00-
1236.25 area on the SP futures and 1810.50-1809.50 area on
the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets back down there, and
does not quickly reverse and bounce with some gusto, then
the downside could gather more momentum and end the week
badly.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1258.50
1265.00-1265.50
1270.00-1270.50
1278.00-1278.75
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1243.50-1243.00
1237.00-1236.25
1229.00-1228.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1852.75
1864.00-1865.00
1868.50-1869.50
1876.75-1877.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1828.00-1827.25
1810.50-1809.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11260
11281-11283
11330-11334
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11127-11123
11073-11068
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
676.00
680.20-680.70
684.20-684.50
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
665.90-665.30
660.90-660.50
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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