TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
6 / 30 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 6/30/2008
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Early strength was sold on Monday, as the SP futures ran up
to 1285.75, just over the 1285.00 resistance, and quickly
reversed. The SP futures dropped 10 points to 1275.50 and
turned up, and that brought in buying. The move stalled out
after the SP futures poked to 1291.00, but the bulls held
their ground at the 1286.75 level. However, after a run to
1292.00 was quickly reversed, selling took over and the
market sold fairly hard. While the Nasdaq futures made a new
low for the day, the SP futures fell through the 1282.00
support to 1281.25, and then the market reversed course. The
market bounced back in choppy fashion, making a rising wedge
type of pattern, as the SP futures reached 1288.50. That
wedge was broken with 15 minutes left in stock trading and
the SP futures fell to 1279.00 and then firmed a bit into
the close.
The volatility is beginning to pick up pace. The rallies
didn't stick again on Monday, however the market is
beginning to act like it's trying to find a bottom. What
would be the ideal setup to get long would be on another
sharp drop in the early going that then can turn up and
rally with some gusto. There hasn't been panic selling yet,
and a bit of a "let me out" type of action followed by a
sharp reversal would set up a "classic" bottoming pattern.
The daily indicators are at big extremes again. If there is
an
early drop on Tuesday, and the market goes down to test the
1272.50-1271.50 area on the SP futures and reverses, then
that could begin a good rally. Aside from that, if there is
early strength on Tuesday, and the move stalls/ reverses
near the initial resistance areas, then a decent shorting
opportunity should set up. However, if the initial
resistance areas are broken, and the market doesn't quickly
reverse, then the upside should be in gear. The big
resistance, if the Monday high is exceeded and not quickly
rejected, would be at the 1298.00-1298.50 area on the SP
futures. A move back to that area should be telling. A
reversal would keep the market in bear mode. A break,
especially on a close, could mean a good low is in place for
a while.
The initial resistance is at the 1288.50-1289.00 area on the
SP futures and 1860.00-1861.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
That's where the last hour selling started from on Monday,
so they should be key areas. If they are cleared, then a
test of the 1291.50-1292.00 area on the SP futures and
1870.25-1871.00 on the Nasdaq futures should be tested. If
the market doesn't fail again at those areas, then the
1293.25 level on the SP futures and 1876.00 level on the
Nasdaq futures is all that should be in the way of a rally
to the 1298.00-1298.50 area on the SP futures and/or
1888.50-1888.75 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1279.25 level on the SP
futures and 1842.25 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those
are broken, and the doesn't quickly reverse, then the
1275.50-1275.00 area on the SP futures and 1837.00-1836.00
area on the Nasdaq futures would be important support. If
there is no hint of a turn around from those areas then the
1272.50-1271.50 area on the SP futures and 1831.00-1829.00
area on the Nasdaq futures are likely going to be magnets.
If the market gets down there, and the move stalls, or
reverses, it should set up a buying opportunity with a
pretty tight stop. However, if the market gets down there
and doesn't turn back up, then a move to the 1268.00-1267.50
area on the SP futures and 1825.00-1824.50 area on the
Nasdaq futures could be in the cards. If the market gets
down there, it will mean the market is weak and would need
to get back over the 1272.50 level on the SP futures to
reverse the trends. If that doesn't happen, then a drop to
test the major support at the 1258.75-1257.00 area on the SP
futures along with the 1812.50-1810.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures could occur.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1288.50-1289.00
1291.50-1292.00
1293.25
1298.00-1298.50
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1279.25
1275.50-1275.00
1272.00-1271.50
1268.00-1267.50
1258.75-1257.00 major
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1860.00-1861.00
1870.25-1871.00
1876.00
1888.50-1888.75
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1837.00-1836.00
1831.00-1829.00
1825.00-1824.50
1812.50-1810.25
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11395-11399
11423-11426
11437
11583-11587
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11319
11276-11274
11244-11238
11199-11194
11142-11137
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
695.70-696.40
699.00-699.20
701.60
706.10-706.50
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
688.50
685.40-685.00
682.50-682.00
679.20-678.70
672.00-671.00
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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