TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
7 / 06 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:48 pm eastern time, 7/06/2008
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The Thursday action was great in the first hour for anyone
who stuck around. The SP futures opened 10 points higher and
promptly fell from 1272.75 to 1251.75 in the first 30
minutes of trading. The move reversed and the SP futures
rallied back to match the opening high, and then gave back a
bit more than half off the gains back before the close.
The daily indicators remain in a deep oversold condition.
However, the market needs a catalyst to rally and it appears
that the old support around the 1273 level is going to be
pivotal. The market is vulnerable unless/until that
resistance is broken and can hold on a pullback. Even if
that occurs, unless there is an outside event that gives the
market an excuse to rally, the moves are probably not going
to stick. A move over the 1273 level that isn't quickly
reversed could get the upside going, but the damage has been
so bad that as soon as the big 10+ point runs on the SP
futures stall out, the market will likely still follow up by
pulling back 5-6 points or more.
So, expect some decent moves both ways on Monday. An early
bounce that stalls/reverses near the 1272.00-1272.75 area on
the SP futures sets up a good shorting opportunity with a
tight stop. On the other side of the coin, if there is a
test of the Thursday lows, and the move reverses, then it
sets up a trade on the long side. Don't get married to
either side unless/until a steady, grind it out, type of
trending move gets in gear.
The initial resistance is at the 1272.00-1272.75 area on the
SP futures and the 1839.00-1840.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas are not a problem for the bulls,
then the next hurdles would be at the 1277.75-1278.25 area
on the SP futures and the 1850.50-1851.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. Those should be key if they're reached. If the
market doesn't reverse from there, then we could see the
1285.75-1286.25 area on the SP futures and the 1859.50-
1860.75 area on the Nasdaq futures. If there is a big move,
then the big-time major resistance is at the 1292.50-1293.25
area on the SP futures and the 1880.50-1882.00 area on the
Nasdaq futures. If all of those are broken and the market
closes above the resistance zones, then a bottom would be
confirmed to be in place and the intermediate term trends
will begin to turn up.
The initial support is at the 1261.50 level on the SP
futures and the 1818.00 level on the Nasdaq futures. If
those don't hold, then they will become resistance on a
bounce. If those are broken and not quickly reversed, then a
drop to test the 1252.75-1252.00 area on the SP futures and
the 1808.00-1806.25 area on the Nasdaq futures could be in
the cards. If those are reached and the market quickly
reverses, then look to get long with a pretty tight initial
stop. However, if the market gets down there and doesn't
reverse, then it could usher in a bit of panic selling and
it would open the door for a drop towards the 1243.50-
1242.50 area on the SP futures and the 1796.75-1795.50 area
on the Nasdaq futures.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1272.00-1272.75
1277.75-1278.25
1285.75-1286.25
1292.50-1293.25
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1261.50
1252.75-1252.00
1243.50-1242.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1839.00-1840.75
1850.50-1851.00
1859.50-1860.75
1880.50-1882.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1818.00
1808.00-1806.25
1796.75-1795.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11319-11323
11377-11379
11417-11422
11472-11477
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11246
11144-11138
11069-11062
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
671.20-671.50
676.30-676.60
682.30-682.70
691.90-693.00
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
663.30
659.20-658.70
652.90-652.10
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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