TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
7 / 16 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:44 pm eastern time, 7/16/2008
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The market opened higher on Wednesday and then pulled back
to 1211.50 on the SP futures and reversed. They quickly ran
up to 1225.25 and then just as quick they dropped back to
1214.25. The market reversed back to the upside and
encountered some trouble at the 1228.50 resistance level.
The pullback held at 1220.25 which was just over good
support, and the market turned back up. A good run to
1233.50 stalled out, and the SP futures pulled back to
1227.25 and turned back up. The kept going until reaching
the updated resistance at 1239.50-1240.50. Off of a 1239.50
high, the SP futures pulled back 5.25 points to 1235.25 and
then turned back up. The steady buying continued until the
4pm close for stocks as the SP futures made it to a 1246.25
high. After the averages closed at their highs, the SP
futures dropped 5 points and settled well under fair value.
This move has the potential to be the first one that sticks.
First though, it looks like the market needs to pull back.
How far that pullback goes will be important as to whether
or not a decent trading bottom is in place. The rally in the
last 2 hours was parabolic, and with the futures selling off
after stocks closed, the upside momentum was dented a bit.
If the market can hold the 1233.75-1233.25 area on the SP
futures and 1832.00-1831.00 area on the Nasdaq futures on a
pullback, or quickly reverse if they are broken, the bulls
get the benefit of any doubts. However, if those areas are
broken and not quickly reversed, then the market could be
getting itself in trouble again.
On Thursday look to get short if there is an early pop that
stalls or reverses, especially if there is a test of the
1245.50-1246.25 area on the SP futures and/or 1849.00-
1850.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market obliges
and pulls back, beware that the first decent pullback should
set up a buying opportunity as soon as the downside momentum
stalls, especially if the move gets close to the 1233.75-
1233.25 area on the SP futures and 1832.00-1831.00 area on
the Nasdaq futures and reverses. Thereafter, expect two-
sided action as back to back trend days isn't likely.
The initial resistance is at the 1245.50-1246.25 area on the
SP futures and 1849.00-1850.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If there is a pop and reversal from those areas, it would
set up a good trade on the short side. However, if those
areas are exceeded and not quickly reversed, then we could
see a move towards the 1250.50-1252.00 area on the SP
futures and 1860.25-1862.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those areas are not a problem, then the big resistance is at
the 1258.00-1258.50 area on the SP futures.
The initial support is at the 1239.25-1238.75 area on the SP
futures and 1840.00-1839.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are broken and the market doesn't quickly turn back
up, then it opens the door for a move down to test the
1233.75-1233.25 area on the SP futures and 1832.00-1831.00
area on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are reached, and
the move stalls, then a decent bounce back to the upside is
likely. If the market doesn't show any signs of turning from
those areas, then the market could fall towards the 1227.50-
1227.00 area on the SP futures and 1824.50-1824.00 area on
the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are reached, and the
market still can not turn around, then the key support is at
the 1223.50-1223.00 area on the SP futures and 1807.75-
1807.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets back
to those areas and still shows no signs of turning back up,
then the market is back in trouble and a move towards the
1218.50-1217.75 and/or 1797.50-1796.50 areas might be in the
cards before a turn around occurs.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1245.50-1246.25
1250.50-1252.00
1258.00-1258.50
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1239.25-1238.75
1233.75-1233.25
1227.50-1227.00
1223.50-1223.00
1218.50-1217.75
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1849.00-1850.25
1860.25-1862.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1840.00-1839.00
1832.00-1831.00
1824.50-1824.00
1807.75-1807.00
1797.50-1796.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11228-11232
11273-11278
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11121-11188
11150-11145
11084-11077
11038-11033
10994-10988
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
686.50-687.00
690.20-690.70
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
683.20-683.00
678.90-678.50
674.50-673.80
671.20-670.80
666.50-666.20
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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