TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 23 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:46 pm eastern time, 2/23/2010
The ES opened lower and turned up, giving a quick bounce
from 1102.75 to 1107.50 in the first 25 minutes. That was
just under the initial resistance at the 1108.00-1108.00
zone and set up a shorting opportunity. A fast drop took the
ES to 1093.50 before bouncing, which was at the 1093.75-
1093.00 zone. A bounce was reversed at 1098 old support and
dropped to a 1090.25 low by 2 pm. A move back to updated
resistance at the 1097.50-1098.00 area followed. A 5 point
drop to 1092.25 followed, then the ES ran up and settled
right at the 1097.50-1098.00 resistance zone.
The internal gauges went from very overbought extremes to an
oversold extreme on a few indicators. One was the closing
Trin at 3.03 o Tuesday. These extremes used to be rare, and
reserved for only the most wicked of selloffs. They would
also tend to mark a short term low within a day or 2 at
most. A closing Trin at 3.00 hasn't been as rare recently,
but the results have tended to be the same. Since September
1, 2009, the closing Trin reached 2.90 or higher on 6
occasions. All 6 occasions marked a low on a closing basis
within 1 day. In case you want the dates and closing Trin
readings, they were on 9/01/09 at 3.47, 10/01/09 at 3.63,
10/30/09 at 2.90, 11/27 at 5.03, 12/17/09 at 3.08 and last
one was a few weeks ago on 2/04/10 at 3.45.
The only thing that opposes this is that the daily chart
pattern doesn't look very good, and the Vix reversed and
that gave a second sell signal. So, with a bit of a mixed
bag, it looks like the market should be alright as long as
the ES stays over the 1092 level. The ES settled more than 3
points over fair value on Tuesday, so higher prices are
factored into the open. They also settled at a resistance
zone, so an early pullback won't be a surprise.
So, look for early strength or a flat open to be met with
selling, but the first decent pullback should set up a
buying opportunity. A two-sided day is likely as long as the
ES doesn't break under the 1089.00-1088.50 area. If that
occurs, then a snap-back rally might need to be put on hold
as things could get a bit ugly.
March 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1097.50-1198.00
1103.50-1104.00
1108.00-1108.50
1111.00-1112.00 **strong
March 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1092.50
1089.00-1088.50
1086.75-1086.25
1082.25-1081.50
March 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1801.50-1802.00
1810.25-1811.50
1821.50-1822.25
1828.50-1830.00 **strong
March 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1792.50
1786.00-1785.00
1782.50-1781.50
1777.50-1776.50
March 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh0
10303-10307
10353-10358
10390-10395
10402-10406 **strong
March 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh0
10251
10238-10235
10221-10219
10182-10179
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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