TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 21 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 2/21/2010
The market opened lower but the ES turned up from just over
the 1098.25-1097.75 support zone and rallied 5.75 points to
1104.50 before going into a tight range. When 1104 was
broken, that area held on a dip and the ES ran up to the
last resistance at the 1110.50-1112.00 zone. Off of a high
at 1111.00, the ES pulled back to the 1107-1106 key support.
The 1106.50 level was the pullback low and a bounce to
1108.75 followed. The failure to clear the 1109.50 updated
resistance sent them to 1105.00 with 45 minutes left in the
trading day. They ran right up to 1109.50 and then dropped
right back down to 1105.25 before the close.
Most, but not all, of the short term gauges have come out of
oversold territory. The short term breadth indicators are
giving divergence, while the short term volume ratios are
still overbought. However, some things are at spots where
major turns have come in the past. The 5 day RSI on the Vix
reached 17.3, and is also 15% below its 10 day average
close. These numbers on the Vix haven't been that stretched
since the October 19th, 2009 high where a drop of 61 SP500
points (on a closing basis) started. The ranges are
shrinking just as the SP500 cash is getting close to the
1114.84-1115.49 area that was a transition on the downside.
That said, at the moment it still looks like the upside is
limited short term. The ES did pull back from the 1110.50-
1112.00 zone on Friday, and it also reversed at the updated
1109.50 level in the final minutes of trading. Early last
week the market closed several days at its highs, however
the upside had trouble holding on to its gains on Friday. It
didn't seem to like the altitude around the 1111 level on
the ES. If there is a drop back to the 1093-1092 area, and
it reverses, that could make a decent low if the market
heads lower on Monday.
Look for early strength to set up a shorting opportunity on
Monday. If that plays out, then the first decent drop needs
to hold the late Friday lows, otherwise the 1098.75-1098.00
area on the ES should be a good test of the market's
strength, or lack there-of. If that area is not defended,
then a test of the 1093.00-1092.00 area should set up a
rally attempt unless the market is in a breakdown mode. If
the ES is able to push through the 1111.00-1112.00 and not
reverse, then the 1114.84-1115.49 area on the SP500 cash
needs to be pushed through and held to keep this upside move
from failing.
March 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1109.50 **key early
1111.00-1112.00 **strong
1117.50-1118.00
March 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1105.50-1105.00
1098.75-1098.00 **key
1093.00-1092.00 **major
1089.00-1088.50
1086.75-1086.25
1079.50 crashette support
March 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1823.50 **key early
1828.50-1830.00 **strong
1836.25-1838.00
March 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1818.50-1818.00
1812.50-1811.50 **key
1803.25-1802.25 **major
1795.25-1794.50
1792.50-1791.50
March 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh0
10405 **key early
10421-10426 **strong
10470-10474
March 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh0
10366-10362
10322-10319 **key
10267-10262 **major
10214-10210
10182-10179
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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