TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 18 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 2/18/2010
The lower open on Thursday was reversed from 1 tick under
the 1096.50-1096.00 support zone on the ES and then it ran
up to 1102.00, just under the big 1102.50-1104.00 zone. A
drop of 5.75 points to 1096.25 followed, and then the market
turned back up and reached 1100.50. A pullback based out at
1098.00, and the breakout over 1100 was held and reversed on
a pullback, and the market took off to the upside. The ES
rallied to and through the 1102.50-1104.00 zone on the way
to a high at 1106.00. The 1104.00 area turned into new
support as the ES firmed into the close.
After the close the Fed raised the discount rate by a
quarter of a point and stocks are down pretty hard as this
is being written. In the last hour I sent an instant message
saying:
"(Feb 18-15:08) Mike: this is the start of a good
sized drop, swing trade for me on part"
If you are in that with me, take half off at the 1093.75-
1093.00 zone overnight or in the morning. Keep a stop at
break-even for the time being.
The market is still extremely overbought, and the upside is
looking like it's limited even if there is a reflex rally
off of a lower open on Friday. The 3 Day thrust reached +.78
at Thursday's close (one of the most overbought readings in
months) and the RBI oscillator is in sell territory. The Vix
reached 20.60 and should jump way up on the open, and it has
given a couple of sell signals.
On Friday look for a trade on the long side if the market
opens lower and then can reverse back up. If that plays out,
beware that the first bounce should set up a very good
shorting opportunity. If the ES cannot reverse from the
1093.75-1093.00 support zone, then a move down to the
1089.00-1088.50 zone must hold. If that area is broken the
market should see the downside, could gather momentum and
the week will end on a sour note.
NOTE- If the weakness holds overnight, the resistance areas
that are broken should turn into resistance on the way up.
March 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1106.75
1107.50-1108.00
1110.50-1112.00
March 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1104.00
1100.00-1099.50
1098.25-1097.75
1093.75-1093.00
1089.00-1088.50
1086.75-1086.25
March 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1824.75
1826.50-1827.50
1832.00-1834.00
March 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1821.50
1815.00-1814.25
1811.50-1811.00
1803.25-1802.25
1795.25-1794.50
1792.50-1791.50
March 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh0
10385
10392-10397
10418-10424
March 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh0
10359
10325-10322
10299-10295
10257-10252
10204-10200
10182-10179
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/RBIchat.htm
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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