TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
9 / 11 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:02 pm eastern time, 9/11/2008
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The market gapped down on the open on Thursday and after
about 10 minutes of trading the SP futures nailed the
1212.50-1211.50 support zone on the December SP futures and
the move reversed. A stair-step higher took the SP futures
up to 1238.50, which was half of a point over the 1238.00
resistance, and the move reversed. The pullback to the
1223.00 support held and the market ran up to new highs. The
SP futures reversed off of 1243.25, but after a 12.25 point
drop to 1231.00, buyers stepped to the plate in the last 30
minutes and the SP went parabolic as they ran up to 1254.00
(which was just shy of the last resistance at the 1255-1256
area) just before the close.
I guess the question is "did the market make a bottom, or is
this another bounce to short?" The market finally had an
impressive rally, as the low was made in the first 15
minutes of trading and the high was made in the last 15
minutes of trading. On the other side of the coin, the
market did close at a decent resistance area on Thursday.
The internals were poor for a reversal day and the low
closing Trin at .42 is usually a sign of an exhausted move
that tends to be reversed. In other words, it would be like
having a closing Trin at 2.38 if the calculation is
reversed.
We get the PPI and the Retail Sales data before the open on
Friday, and the Michigan Sentiment survey 30 minutes into
the trading day. This move could go for another day or so,
but the theme should be to expect more volatility. Trend
days are often times followed by back and forth, two-sided
action the following day. That should be expected on Friday.
Look for a shorting opportunity if there is an early pop
that stalls/ reverses, especially if the move reverses from
the initial resistance areas. If that plays out, then take
cover on shorts and look for a buying opportunity if/when
the first decent pullback stalls out. That first pullback
should hold near the initial support areas, otherwise the
early high might be a top as the market begins trading in a
big range.
The initial resistance is at the 1255.50-1256.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1785.50-1787.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are not a problem, then the next hurdles
would be at the 1260.25-1261.25 area on the SP futures and
the 1793.50-1794.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market doesn't have a problem at those areas, then there
should be some resistance near the 1266.00-1266.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1798.00-1799.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are exceeded, then the door would be open
for a move towards the 1273.50-1274.50 area on the SP
futures and/or the 1810.50-1812.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures.
The initial support is at the 1243.00-1242.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1773.00-1771.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those areas are not held, then the next bounce would
likely set up a shorting opportunity as an early high could
be in place. The next support is at the lows made in the
last 30 minutes on Thursday, at the 1231.50-1231.00 area on
the SP futures and the 1758.50-1757.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If there is sustained trading under those areas,
especially on the SP futures, then it will open the door for
a drop towards the 1223.50-1223.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1746.50-1745.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those
areas are broken and the market cannot bounce right back,
then the 1212.50-1211.50 area should be tested again. If the
market does get hit and those areas are broken, it would
begin a nose-dive towards the 1200 level on the SP500 cash.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1255.50-1256.00
1260.25-1261.25
1266.00-1266.50
1273.50-1274.50
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1243.00-1242.00
1231.50-1231.00
1223.50-1223.00
1212.50-1211.50
1200 {SP500 cash}
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1785.50-1787.00
1793.50-1794.50
1798.00-1799.00
1810.50-1812.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1773.00-1771.50
1758.50-1757.75
1746.50-1745.50
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
11462-11468
11504-11509
11560-11565
11638-11643
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
11356-11352
11242-11238
11167-11163
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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