TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 25 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:30 pm eastern time, 8/25/2008
Learn how Mike Reed, a 25+ year veteran trader, finds his
nightly fixed support and resistance levels. Click here for
more details: http://www.tradestalker.com/RTGLive.htm
The market opened down on Monday and below the initial
support that was key. After a small bounce from 1280.25 to
1284.00 on the SP futures, the market rolled over and
dropped steadily to a 1265.75 low just before 1 pm. The
market tried to get going on the upside, but the first move
off of the low could only pop to 1270.25 before reversing
and pulling back to 1267.50. The SP futures then moved over
the 1270 level again, but after getting to 1271.75 the SP
futures went back down through the 1270 level and that lead
to a new low for the day at 1264.50 on the SP futures and
then the market firmed up a bit into the close.
On Tuesday we get the Consumer Confidence number 30 minutes
into the trading day, and then we get the FOMC Minutes
released at 2 pm eastern time. This should help give a dose
of volatility to the market. The VIX reversed from
complacent levels, and in doing so a few sell signals were
given. However, the jump of 11.5% might be too much
bearishness for one day.
The market has been able to recover after the sharp drops
lately. If things go as they have, then the market will move
higher in the early going on Tuesday. If there is a rally,
the move needs to get over the initial resistance areas and
not quickly reverse to get the market out of the down-
trends. If the market is so weak that it can not break and
hold the initial resistance areas, then it's more trouble
for the bulls. However, If the market can get over the
initial resistance and hold, then we could rally back
towards the 1280.50-1281.00 area on the SP futures and/or
the 1911.50-1913.00 area on the Nasdaq futures and then see
what the market wants to do. A rally will not be able to
hold over those areas if it's still weak.
The initial resistance is at the 1272.00-1272.50 area on the
SP futures and 1901.50-1902.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The market will be vulnerable unless those areas a cleared
and held. If those are cleared, and the market doesn't
quickly reverse, then the next hurdles would be at the
1277.00-1277.50 area on the SP futures and 1907.50-1908.25
area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets back up
there, and the move loses steam, then beware of a reversal
of trend and a selloff back towards that 1272.50-1272.00
zone at a minimum. However, if the market plows through that
resistance then the 1280.50-1281.00 area on the SP futures
and 1911.50-1913.00 area on the Nasdaq futures will likely
be pivotal. A reversal would put the market back in
downtrends, but a break and hold over those areas would open
the door for a run to the 1285.00-1285.50 area on the SP
futures and 1920.25-1921.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are somehow exceeded, then there should be very strong
resistance near the 1291.00-1291.75 area on the SP futures
and 1929.25-1930.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1261.50-1260.50 area on the SP
futures and 1887.00-1886.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Those areas should be bought if the market is going to be
ok. If those are broken, then the 1257.50-1256.75 area on
the SP futures and 1881.50-1880.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures must hold or else another sizable downdraft is in
the cards, with a move towards the 1252.50-1251.50 area
being a last good support in front of another nasty selloff.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1272.00-1272.50
1277.00-1277.50
1280.50-1281.00
1285.00-1285.50
1291.00-1291.75
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1261.50-1260.50
1257.50-1256.75
1252.50-1251.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1901.50-1902.50
1907.50-1908.25
1911.50-1913.00
1920.25-1921.25
1929.25-1930.50
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1887.00-1886.00
1881.50-1880.25
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11434-11439
11479-11482
11508-11513
11548-11552
11604-11611
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11326-11322
11298-11293
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
723.00-723.20
727.80-728.20
730.30-730.70
734.20-734.80
739.00-739.50
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
716.90-716.40
713.20-712.80
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
No comments:
Post a Comment