TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
9 / 4 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:17 pm eastern time, 9/4/2008
The market opened lower on Thursday and under the key
support that was at the Wednesday lows. There was a quick
reversal off of the 1262.50-1261.50 support zone on the SP
futures, but the bounce from 1261.50 to 1268.00 fizzled and
the downside reasserted itself. As it was noted last night:
"...if the Wednesday low areas are not able to hold,
then we could see a pretty good drop as stops gets
triggered"
That was the case and it was reiterated at 10:41 am when I
wrote "a collapse is likely". It was basically trend-down
into 2 pm, as the 20 period ema on the 5 minute chart and
the 5 and 15 period sma's on the 13 minute charts acted as
dynamic resistance most of the day. After getting to 1236.75
on the SP futures, the market made a feeble bounce. The SP
futures poked over the 1244.75 level for about 10 seconds
before turning right back down, and after some churning the
market rolled over and made new lows (with the SP futures
reaching the 1235.00-1234.50 zone) in the final minutes of
trading.
We get the Jobs number before the open on Friday. It
probably won't matter unless there is something very
unexpected reported. The market can not hold on to a rally,
and the break-out under the 1266 level on the SP500 cash and
futures is a negative. Unless there is a move over the
initial resistance areas, that isn't quickly reversed again,
the bounces will set up good shorting opportunities as soon
as the upside fizzles. A break and hold over the initial
resistance will be necessary to get a decent bounce going.
On Friday look for shorting opportunities on the rallies
that stall/reverse. The trends and momentum are pointing
lower, so don't fight the trend. It will take a close back
over the 1266 level to change things short term, so even a
good one day rally will likely set up a good shorting
opportunity. A break and hold over the initial resistance
areas would be a plus, very short term. However, a move over
those areas that then breaks back down through them would be
a fake-out and start another drop. A crashette type of drop
could occur under the current conditions.
The initial resistance is at the 1245.00-1245.75 area on the
SP futures and 1792.00-1793.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those areas are reached, and the move stalls out, it's a
shorting opportunity with a pretty tight stop. If those are
not a problem, then the next hurdles are at the 1252.25-
1252.75 area on the SP futures and 1812.50-1814.00 area on
the Nasdaq futures. That is as far as a bounce should go if
the market is going to revisit the lows soon. If those areas
are both exceeded, and the market doesn't reverse, then a
move towards the 1261.50-1262.50 area on the SP futures and
1822.75-1824.00 area on the Nasdaq futures could be in the
cards.
The initial support is at the 1235.00-1234.50 area on the SP
futures and 1773.50-1772.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are broken, then there is minor support at the
1230.00-1229.50 area on the SP futures and 1766.75-1765.50
area on the Nasdaq futures. There should be better support
at the 1225.00-1224.50 area on the SP futures and 1758.50-
1757.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market can not
hold those areas, then a slide towards the 1214.00-1212.50
area on the SP futures and 1741.50-1738.50 area on the
Nasdaq futures is in the cards. If the downside snowballs,
the drop could test the 1200.75 level on the SP futures. If
that happens, and 1200 doesn't hold, then we will likely see
the 1184-1182 area on the SP futures reached on this leg
down.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1245.00-1245.75
1252.25-1252.75
1261.50-1262.50
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1235.00-1234.50
1230.00-1229.50
1225.00-1224.50
1214.00-1212.50 - key
1200.75
1184-1182 - a target for a low on this leg down
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1792.00-1793.00
1812.50-1814.00
1822.75-1824.00
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1773.50-1772.50
1766.75-1765.50
1758.50-1757.50
1741.50-1738.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11265-11267
11320-11325
11397-11402
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11182-11177
11135-11129
11108-11102
11007-10998
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
722.10-722.40
726.50-727.10
731.60-732.10
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
717.70-717.30
715.40-715.00
711.20-710.70
705.60-705.10
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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