TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
9 / 22 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:04 pm eastern time, 9/22/2008
We were looking to short early strength on Monday as soon as
the move fizzled and/or reversed, but it sure didn't look
like we would get it on Sunday. However, the SP futures
opened up a point on Monday's open and after touching
1250.00 they reversed. The drop took the market lower and
the SP futures dropped to 1232.50 before a bounce occurred.
The bounce back was feeble and stalled out at the 1241-1242
area (1241.25 bounce high) and fell to the 1227-1225 area.
After a small bounce, the market fell to new lows for the
day, with the SP futures getting to 1222.00 before a bounce
occurred. The bounce stalled and reversed at the 1232.50
resistance level (and 60ema on 5 minute chart) and then sold
off to a 1205.25 low with 15 minutes left in stock trading.
After stocks closed, the SP futures rallied to 1214 and
settled more than 5 points above fair value.
It looks like we are going to go into a big trading range
with a lot of swings both ways again this week. With a
number of big moves coming, look for the up moves to show
signs of stalling out to set up good shorting opportunities.
On the downside, the very sharp drops can offer nimble
traders an opportunity to get long as soon as the turn back
up begins.
Monday was basically a trend down day, so Tuesday should
give us a turn-around attempt. The first good trade should
be on the short side if the futures open higher on Tuesday
If there is early strength, then it should set up a good
shorting opportunity as soon as the move stalls out or
reverses. If the market doesn't hold up going into the
Tuesday open, and instead there is early weakness, then look
for a buying opportunity if the market reverses in the first
40 minutes of trading. Just beware that unless/until there
is a break and hold above the 1225.50-1226.25 area on the SP
futures and the 1699.75-1700.75 area on the Nasdaq futures
(along with 11163-11168 on the Dow futures) the market will
still be in downtrends on an intraday basis.
The initial resistance is at the 1216.50-1217.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1676.00-1676.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are not a problem, then the 1225.50-
1226.25 area on the SP futures and the 1699.75-1700.75 area
on the Nasdaq futures would be the first strong resistance.
If those are broken, then we could see a run up towards the
1232.50-1233.00 area on the SP futures and the 1712.50-
1713.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are
exceeded and the market doesn't quickly reverse, then the
market could be digging itself out of a hole. The next good
resistance would be at the 1235.00 and 1719.00 levels. If
those are not reversed, then the big hurdles on Tuesday are
at the 1241.25-1242.25 area on the SP futures and the
1727.50-1728.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If something
sparks another big rally then look for good resistance at
the 1249.50-1250.25 area on the SP futures and the 1737.50-
1738.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The first good support is at the 1206.00-1205.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1664.00-1663.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas do not hold and make double bottoms,
then a drop towards the 1197.00-1196.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1651.50-1650.50 area on the Nasdaq futures
will need to be watched for a reversal. If that occurs, it
should set up a good trade on the long side if the market
reverses from there. If it doesn't, then the downside could
pick up some steam. The next good support area would be at
the 1187.00-1186.00 area on the SP futures and the 1638.50-
1636.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets there
and cannot reverse, then it opens the door for a drop
towards the 1178.50-1178.00 area on the SP futures. If that
doesn't hold then the 1166.00-1165.00 area on the SP futures
would need to be watched for a reversal.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1216.50-1217.00
1225.50-1226.25
1232.50-1233.00
1235.00
1241.25-1242.25
1249.50-1250.25
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1206.00-1205.00
1197.00-1196.50
1187.00-1186.00
1178.50-1178.00
1166.00-1165.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1676.00-1676.50
1699.75-1700.75
1712.50-1713.50
1719.00
1727.50-1728.50
1737.50-1738.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1664.00-1663.00
1651.50-1650.50
1638.50-1636.50
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
11075-11078
11163-11168
11203-11209
11234
11303-11309
11390-11395
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
11004-10997
10910-10903
10812-10804
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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