TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
9 / 16 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:10 pm eastern time, 9/16/2008
The market had another gap down open on Tuesday and quickly
turned up from an 1167.25 low on the SP futures and the
market then rallied back to 1206.00 on the SP futures before
pulling back. The 1183 level turned into support, and a good
bounce back to 1201.00 followed. The move stalled out and
the market sold off to 1191.25 on the SP futures going into
the Fed release. After the release there was a plunge to
1175.50 on the SP futures and then the move quickly
reversed. The first pop reversed from that 1191.25 level,
but the pullback to 1180.75 was also quickly reversed and
the market shot to new highs for the day. The pullback were
bought as the market held its uptrend into the close.
It looks like we are set to get more volatility on
Wednesday. The SP500 cash reversed off of its 50%
retracement from 768.63 to 1576.09 and rallied almost 45
points on Tuesday. It looks like a short term low *could* be
in place. However, the rallies that have ended the day at
the highs have been sold right from the get-go lately. They
rallied too far too fast in the last 2 hours on Tuesday and
a decent pullback should occur first on Wednesday. If that
occurs, and there is another sharp drop that then reverses
at, or from just under the 1200 level on the SP futures,
then it should set up a decent trade on the long side.
On Wednesday look for early strength to set up a good odds
shorting opportunity. If that plays out, then a drop that
tests or slightly breaks under 1200 on the SP futures will
need to be quickly reversed to keep the "buy the dips" mode
in place. If there is sustained trading back under 1200,
then the pressure will be on and a sharper selloff towards
the 1291.25-1290.50 area on the SP futures could be in the
cards. The key support on Wednesday is at the post Fed
release lows, at the 1276.50-1276.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1692.50-1692.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those
areas are tested, and buyers don't step to the plate and
turn the market back up, then a drop to test the Tuesday
lows will be likely. If the Tuesday lows are not held, which
was a logical spot to turn back up, then we could see the
market spill towards the 1158.00-1157 area on the SP
futures. If that happens and there isn't a reversal, then
the low 1100's could be in the cards before this is over.
The initial resistance is at the 1220.50-1221.00 area on the
SP futures and 1747.50-1748.25 areas. If the market gets
through those areas, then a pop to the 1225.50-1226.00 area
on the SP futures and 1752.75-1753.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures are potential reversal areas. If the market if
strong enough to push through those areas and doesn't
quickly reverse, then we could get to the 1232.50-1233.00
area on the SP futures and 1760.75-1761.75 area on the
Nasdaq futures before a reversal occurs.
The initial support is at the 1205.00-1204.50 area on the SP
futures and 1723.00-1722.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are broken, then the test of the 1200.00 level on the
SP futures and 1719.50 level on the Nasdaq futures would be
next. This is where a good snap-back rally should begin if
we are going to get one, so be alert for a reversal from
down there. If the market doesn't reverse from there, then
it shouldn't break the 1196.50-1195.50 area on the SP
futures and 1716.50-1715.50 area on the Nasdaq futures if
the market is going to avoid trouble. If those don't hold,
then the 1291.25-1290.50 area on the SP futures and 1710.00-
1708.00 area on the Nasdaq futures would be next. That was a
pivotal level on the SP futures just after the Fed release,
and if that isn't quickly reversed then the 1276.50-1276.00
area on the SP futures and 1692.50-1692.00 area on the
Nasdaq futures would be next. A break of those areas would
be bad news, and a test of the 1268.00-1267.00 area on the
SP futures and 1682.00-1680.00 area on the Nasdaq futures
would need to hold to avoid a bad day.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1220.50-1221.00
1225.50-1226.00
1232.50-1233.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1205.00-1204.50
1200.00
1196.50-1195.50
1291.25-1290.50
1276.50-1276.00
1268.00-1267.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1747.50-1748.25
1752.75-1753.25
1760.75-1761.75
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1723.00-1722.50
1719.50
1716.50-1715.50
1710.00-1708.00
1692.50-1692.00
1682.00-1680.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
11083-11088
11142-11148
11200-11206
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
10964-10959
10917
10888-10882
10832-10826
10783-10777
10726-10719
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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