TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
9 / 18 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:13 pm eastern time, 9/18/2008
The market opened higher on Thursday but after about 30
minutes of trading the market rolled over. From a high at
1187.50 on the SP futures, the market sold off steadily into
the early afternoon. After falling to new lows for the year
at 1136.25 on the SP futures and 1612.25 on the Nasdaq
futures (just over the 1134.00-1133.00 area on the ES and
right at the 1612.00-1610.00 area on the Nasdaq futures),
the market turned up and broke through 1162 resistance.
There was a pullback that found support at 1158.50 on the SP
futures, and then the spark that was needed to ignite a good
rally was struck when Treasury Secretary Paulson announced
the RTC-Type solution to the credit crisis. The market took
off like a rocket and the mother of all oversold rallies was
the result. Buyers jumped in with both hands and drove the
market higher. Off of the pullback lows at 1158.50 on the SP
futures and 1626.25 on the Nasdaq futures, they rallied
60.25 and 86.50 points respectively in the last 90 minutes
of trading.
The market made an outside day after making new yearly lows
on Thursday. It looks like a good low could be in place. The
VIX jumped over 40 and reversed on Thursday, and that gave 5
VIX buy signals. The range from bottom to top was 82.50
points on the ES, 100.50 points on the NQ, and 621 points on
the YM. Coming off of new lows for the year with that kind
of momentum is the mark of a good short to intermediate term
bottom.
The market is due to give back some of the gains on Friday,
so look for a shorting opportunity if there is early
strength that reverses. If that plays out, look for a buying
opportunity when the pullback stalls out and/or reverses. A
pullback should hold above the 1178.50-1178.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1651.00-1650.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures if the market is in a strong position. At the worst,
a pullback will hold the 1159.00-1158.00 and 1627.00-1626.00
low areas from before the last 90 minute rally. If those
later areas are tested and the market doesn't quickly
reverse, then there is something wrong again and a test of
the Thursday lows would be possible.
The initial resistance is at the 1220.00-1221.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1715.25-1716.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market pops up there early and reverses, it
would set up a selling opportunity. If those areas are not a
problem, then the 1225.50-1226.00 area on the SP futures and
the 1722.50-1723.25 area on the Nasdaq futures would be the
next hurdles. If the market doesn't turn back from those
areas, then we could see a rally towards the 1232.50-1233.00
area on the SP futures and the 1732.75-1733.75 area on the
Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1195.50-1195.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1674.50-1673.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are not held, then the 1189.00-1188.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1659.50-1658.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures would be the next support areas. If they don't turn
back up from those areas, then the first key areas are at
the 1178.50-1178.00 area on the SP futures and the 1651.00-
1650.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those do not hold,
then look for some support near the 1172.00-1171.50 and
1644.50-1643.50 zones. If those areas are reached, be alert
for a reversal. However, if the market gets down there and
doesn't hold, then the key support is at the 1159.00-1158.00
area on the SP futures and the 1627.00-1626.00 area on the
Nasdaq futures.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1220.00-1221.00
1225.50-1226.00
1232.50-1233.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
1195.50-1195.00
1189.00-1188.00
1178.50-1178.00
1172.00-1171.50
1159.00-1158.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1715.25-1716.50
1722.50-1723.25
1732.75-1733.75
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1674.50-1673.50
1659.50-1658.50
1651.00-1650.00
1644.50-1643.50
1627.00-1626.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
11085-11089
11142-11148
11200-11206
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
10919-10913
10874-10866
10785-10779
10712-10709
10712-10709
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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