TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
12 / 10 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:08 pm eastern time, 12/10/2008
The market opened higher on Wednesday, but the strength was
sold and the SP futures dropped 8.50 points to 892.25 before
turning back up. The rally fizzled after reaching 904.75 and
then a pullback to 893.25 was bought. The market rallied
towards the 909.50-910.25 zone, but the move fizzled and
reversed from 908.75 and rolled over. A pop off of 895.25
was reversed at new resistance at the 903 area, and the
market dropped to test the Tuesday lows. The test passed and
a very choppy rebound lasted until 5 minutes left in stock
trading. The SP futures backed off a bit over 7 points
before firming a bit into the close.
The daily indicators are still somewhat overbought. The
market traded inside on the Tuesday range for all but a few
seconds on the Dow on Wednesday. Those low areas now are
"must hold" to avoid a drop to fill the gap from Monday. The
market feels complacent and that's a bit of a red flag short
term. For now, it looks like the MARCH SP futures must get
over the initial resistance, and not quickly reverse, to get
something going on the upside. On the other side of the
coin, if the initial support is broken, then odds of
testing, and likely breaking, the Wednesday lows are pretty
good. The last two hours of trading formed a rising wedge
pattern on the SP futures going into the close, and a break
of that could start a sharp drop. If the SP futures open
higher and especially at the initial resistance areas, it
should set up a good reward/risk trade on the short side.
We roll over to March 2009 for all index futures contracts
on Thursday. The numbers are for the March futures. The
symbols are ES H9 for the emini SP futures, NQ H9 for the
emini Nasdaq futures, and YM H9 for the emini Dow futures.
The initial resistance is at the 902.50-903.50 area on the
March 2009 SP futures and the 1228.00-1229.00 area on the
March 2009 Nasdaq futures. If the market pops up on the
open, those would likely be a gift on the short side. If the
market gets there and doesn't reverse, then the next hurdles
would be at the 907.25-908.25 area on the SP futures and the
1238.50-1239.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are
exceeded, then it would open the door for a move towards the
918.00-918.75 area on the SP futures and the 1252.50-1254.00
area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets up there
again, and doesn't get rejected, then we could see the
925.50-926.00 area on the SP futures and the 1264.50-1265.50
area on the Nasdaq futures on this leg up.
The initial support is at the 890.75-890.25 area on the SP
futures and the 1215.00-1214.75 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If broken, the market could accelerate to the downside. If
those areas are broken and then reversed, beware that a pop
that fizzles under the initial resistance would set up a
shorting opportunity. If the market drops to the 884.50-
884.00 area on the SP futures and the 1205.25-1203.50 area
on the Nasdaq futures, we need to see a third reversal from
that area to avoid trouble. If those are not reversed, then
the 879.50-878.50 area on the SP futures and the 1194.00-
1192.50 area on the Nasdaq futures could be magnets. If
those are reached and not reversed, then a drop towards the
872.75-872.00 area on the SP futures and the 1183.00-1182.00
area on the Nasdaq futures is likely in the cards. If the
market gets there, beware of a reversal unless there is some
panic selling going on. If those are broken, then the
865.50-864.50 area on the SP futures and the 1174.00-1172.50
area on the Nasdaq futures need to hold to avoid an ugly day
on the downside.
We roll over to March 2009 for all index futures contracts
on Thursday. The numbers are for the March futures. The
symbols are ES H9 for the emini SP futures, NQ H9 for the
emini Nasdaq futures, and YM H9 for the emini Dow futures.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
902.50-903.50
907.25-908.25
918.00-918.75
925.50-926.00
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
890.75-890.25
884.50-884.00
879.50-878.50
872.75-872.00
865.50-864.50
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1228.00-1229.00
1238.50-1239.50
1252.50-1254.00
1264.50-1265.50
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1215.00-1214.75
1205.25-1203.50
1194.00-1192.50
1183.00-1182.00
1174.00-1172.50
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
8790-8795
8850-8857
9000-9005
9058-9068
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
8684-8680
8622-8617
8594-8588
8518-8512
8477-8471
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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