TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
12 / 15 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:38 pm eastern time, 12/15/2008
A flat open was sold on Monday and the SP futures dropped
from 885.75 to 863.50 before getting turned around. The
bounce formed a rising wedge on the intraday charts and when
the move fizzled and reversed from the updated 873-874 area
(873.75 bounce high), the market sold off fairly hard. The
SP futures fell to 861.00, just over the 860.50-860.00
support area and then bounced back. The bounce fizzled and
reversed from 870.75 and then dropped to 856.25 on the SP
futures. That was 3 ticks above the 855.50-855.00 support
zone and the market turned back up. The sprint took the SP
futures to 874.25 and they reversed again, but the pullback
held 865.00 and then the SP futures went back to the 873-874
zone at the close.
On Tuesday we get the Fed decision on interest rate policy,
and any reaction will come from the statement that is made.
The VIX jumped up on Monday, so a pick-up in volatility is
implied. We also got a sell signal from the VIX on Monday,
however most all of the other indicators are in neutral
territory now. The jump by the VIX could set the stage for
sharp moves in both directions on Tuesday.
The day ended with uptrends on Monday. Look for early
strength to fizzle to set up a shorting opportunity. If that
plays out, then a pullback should hold the initial support
areas on a pullback to keep the market from rolling back
over. If a pullback can hold and turn up from that area on
Tuesday, then it will set up a buying opportunity. If there
is no early back-and-forth action to set up those
opportunities, and instead there is a trending move into the
2 pm timeframe (just before the Fed release at 2:15 pm
eastern time) then a reversal is high odds. In any case,
after the release there tends to be about 20 minutes of
quick ups and downs, and then the market should get into a
directional move that lasts into the very late trading. That
is usually worth the wait.
The first resistance on Tuesday is at the 873.50-874.50 area
on the SP futures and the 1195.50-1197.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are not rejected again, then we could see
a run up towards the 884.00-884.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1209.50-1210.75 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market gets up there and the move fizzles, it should offer a
good shorting opportunity. However, if those areas are
easily cut through, it will open the door for a move to the
887.50-888.00 area on the SP futures and the 1216.50-1217.50
area on the Nasdaq futures, and possibly up to the 894.00-
894.75 area on the SP futures and the 1221.25-1222.50 area
on the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets up there and
doesn't reverse, then the 903.50-904.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1238.00-1239.00 area on the Nasdaq futures
will be next. A break of those areas then would open the
door for a push to the 907.25-908.25 area on the SP futures
and the 1243.50-1244.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If there
is a strong rally, then the 912.50-913.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1252.50-1254.00 area on the Nasdaq futures
are the key resistance areas on Tuesday. If those are
exceeded, then we could see the 928 area on the SP futures
on this leg up.
The initial support is at the 865.50-865.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1181.50-1180.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
As long as those areas are not broken, then the trends will
still be up. If buyers keep their hands in their pockets,
then a drop towards the 856.00-855.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1169.00-1168.00 area on the Nasdaq futures will need
to hold, or quickly reverse if broken. If that area is not
respected, and brings in buying/ short covering, then a drop
towards the 846.50-846.00 area on the SP futures and the
1157.50-1156.75 area on the Nasdaq futures could be in the
works. A move to those areas would need to quickly reverse,
otherwise the downside could pick up some pace and we could
go down towards the 838.00-837.50 area on the SP futures and
the 1150.25-1149.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. Those should
hold if the market gets hit with a hard selloff. However, if
those do not hold, then we could drop towards the 830.25-
828.75 area on the SP futures and the 1140.25-1138.25 area
on the Nasdaq futures. If the day gets ugly, the major
support is at the 817-816 area on the SP futures.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
873.50-874.50
884.00-884.50
887.50-888.00
894.00-894.75
903.50-904.50
907.25-908.25
912.50-913.50
928
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
865.50-865.00
856.00-855.00
846.50-846.00
838.00-837.50
830.25-828.75
817-816
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1195.50-1197.00
1209.50-1210.75
1216.50-1217.50
1221.25-1222.50
1238.00-1239.00
1243.50-1244.50
1252.50-1254.00
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1181.50-1180.50
1169.00-1168.00
1157.50-1156.75
1150.25-1149.50
1140.25-1138.25
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
8600-8604
8662-8667
8698-8703
8728-8734
8790-8795
8850-8857
8930-8936
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
8519-8514
8446-8441
8386-8381
8302-8298
8248-8241
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This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
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research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
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in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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is substantial. You can lose more than your original
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