TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 30 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:57 pm eastern time, 11/30/2008
The market opened lower on Friday and the SP futures bounced
off of the 880.50 level back to 889.25 in just over 10
minutes of trading, and then the market went back to test
the lows. There was good buying at the 881.00-880.25 area
and at 11:25 am the SP futures broke out of a falling wedge
pattern and rallied to 892.00. The upside fizzled, but the
pullback to 887.00 was quickly reversed and the SP futures
rallied to the 897.50-898.50 resistance zone into the close.
The market has been up 4 days in a row and 158 points on the
SP futures. The overbought indicators only halted the buying
until the last 2 hours in Friday's shortened session. Now
the indicators show a minor momentum divergence with the
higher high on Friday not confirmed by the indicators. The
market hasn't "been on pins and needles" coming off of the
lows last week at all. Instead, it has been more of a steady
grind with occasional sprints and hiccups along the way.
However, the complacency may have changed a bit on Friday.
VIX reversed on Friday and that is a heads up for the
volatility to begin to pick up again.
The SP futures closed right at a good resistance area on
Friday. However, it looks like the market needs to hold over
the Friday lows, mainly the 880.75-880.25 area on the SP
futures, to avoid potential trouble on Monday. As long as
that area is not broken and held, the dips that reverse
should set up buying opportunities. On the other side of the
coin, the rallies into new high ground for this leg up
fizzle and reverse setting up good scalps on the short side.
However, if there is a pullback to that 880.75-880.25 area
that doesn't quickly reverse, then things are changing short
term and a trading top of some sort would be in place.
Shorting bounces would then offer the better trading
opportunities as soon as the move stalls out.
Look for a shorting opportunity on Monday if there is an
early pop that reverses in the first 20-40 minutes of
trading. If that plays out, be ready to cover and/or get
long if the first support is held on a pullback, or quickly
reversed. If the initial support does not hold, then that
880.75-880.25 area on the SP futures could be put to the
test.
The initial resistance is at 897.50-898.50 on the SP futures
and 1186.25-1187.50 on the Nasdaq futures. If those Friday
highs are pushed through, then there should be decent
resistance just above at the 900.50 level on the SP futures
and the 1190.50 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those are
not reversed, then we could go for the 904.50-905.50 and
1195.00-1196.50 areas. Those areas should be key, especially
on a close. If the market gets up there and doesn't fizzle
or get quickly rejected, then the 908.00-908.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1204.00-1205.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures would be next. If the market has another melt-up
type of day, beware of a reversal from a move towards the
918.50-920.50 area on the SP futures and the 1216.25-1218.00
area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at 887.00 on the SP futures and
1175.00 on the Nasdaq futures. If the market pulls back to
those levels and does not quickly reverse, then there is a
chink in the bull's armor and the trends could roll over. If
it leads to a test of the 880.75-880.25 area on the SP
futures and the 1171.25-1170.25 area on the Nasdaq futures,
the market will need to quickly reverse back to the upside.
The way the market has been acting, it should be a gift on
the long side. However, if those are broken and not quickly
reversed, then the next decent support is down at the
873.00-872.00 area on the SP futures and the 1163.00-1162.00
area on the Nasdaq futures. If those do not hold, then the
key support on Monday is down at the 860.00-859.00 area on
the SP futures, 8500 on the Dow cash and the 1154.50-1153.75
area on the Nasdaq futures.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
897.50-898.50
900.50
904.50-905.50
908.00-908.50
918.50-920.50
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
887.00
880.75-880.25
873.00-872.00
860.00-859.00
8500 {Dow cash}
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1186.25-1187.50
1190.50
1195.00-1196.50
1204.00-1205.50
1216.25-1218.00
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1175.00
1171.25-1170.25
1163.00-1162.00
1154.50-1153.75
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8825-8832
8852
8888-8894
8922-8928
9038-9052
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8748
8694-8690
8593-8587
8488-8480
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG).
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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