TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
12 / 4 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:29 pm eastern time, 12/4/2008
A lower open reversed and the SP futures went from 854.00 to
875.50 before noon. The action turned a bit choppy, but the
SP futures fell to 855.00 and a test of the morning low
brought in buying. The SP futures bounced to 870.00 and
reversed, and the toppy action finally showed itself as the
market rolled over. The SP futures dropped to 832.00 and the
Nasdaq futures reached 1109.00, right at the KEY support at
the area on the SP futures and the 1110.00-1108.50 area on
the Nasdaq futures. The market bounced into the close as the
SP and Nasdaq futures reached 848.50 and 1135.50,
respectively.
We get the Employment report before the open on Friday. My
indicators are neutral, and not giving a strong bias in
either direction. The market has been in a trading range for
awhile now, and the SP futures tested the upper end and fell
back to around the middle of the range. Maybe the Employment
report will be the thing to get the market out of the range.
As stated above, the key support held on both the SP and
Nasdaq futures on Friday, so a retest that reverses back up
could set up a trade on the long side. On the other side of
the coin, the drop in the last 90 minutes left longs trapped
and looking to get out at even or better, so if there is a
move up towards the Wednesday highs that fizzles and
reverses, a good trade on the short side sets up. Since the
market has been range-bound, look to get long on the drops
as soon as they reverse to the upside, and short the rallies
as soon as the move loses momentum and begins to roll over.
Now, if there is a breakout of the Thursday range, and the
breakout isn't reversed in about 10 minutes, then we could
see a good trend develop and give a directional move that
lasts into the closing minutes of trading.
Most of the big up or down opens have reversed in the first
5 minutes lately. If there is a big move on the open, it
should set up a reversal for a trade. Aside from that, look
for a reversal in the first 20-40 minutes and then a decent
trend should develop.
The first hurdle on Friday is at the 850.25 level on the SP
futures and the 1135.00 level on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are exceeded, then the first key areas should be at
the 853.75-854.50 area on the SP futures and the 1140.50-
1141.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. That area has been
traded a lot this week, so if the market gets through that
area then we should be on the way towards the 862.00-863.00
area on the SP futures and the 1146.50-1147.50 area on the
Nasdaq futures. If the market isn't rejected there, then the
870.25 level on the SP futures and the 1156.75 level on the
Nasdaq futures would be key resistance. If the market
doesn't hesitate and goes through those levels, then the key
resistance is at the 874.50-875.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1168.00-1169.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If there
isn't a reversal from up there, then we should test pretty
good resistance at the 880.50-882.00 area on the SP futures
and the 1174.50-1175.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 843.25-843.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1125.50-1124.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are broken early and not quickly reversed, then a
test of the key support at the 832.00-831.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1110.00-1108.50 area on the Nasdaq futures
could be in the cards. If the market reverses back up from
those areas, it should set up a good trade on the long side.
However, if those are broken and not quickly reversed, then
the next good support is down at the 823.50-823.00 area on
the SP futures and the 1101.75-1101.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market gets there, it must quickly reverse,
otherwise the 818.00-817.75 area on the SP futures and the
1091.00-1090.00 area on the Nasdaq futures are in the cards.
Those areas are major support. If broken, then there is some
support at the 813.00-812.50 area on the SP futures, and
possibly a drop towards the 802.00-799.50 area on the SP
futures if things turn ugly.
December 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
850.25
853.75-854.50
862.00-863.00
870.25
874.50-875.50
880.50-882.00
December 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz8 / big contract =spz8
843.25-843.00
832.00-831.50
823.50-823.00
818.00-817.75
813.00-812.50
802.00-799.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1135.00
1140.50-1141.50
1146.50-1147.50
1156.75
1168.00-1169.00
1174.50-1175.50
December 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz8 / big contract = ndz8
1125.50-1124.50
1110.00-1108.50
1101.75-1101.00
1091.00-1090.00
December 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz8
8411
8468-8475
8559-8563
8614
8634-8639
8685-8691
December 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz8
8370-8367
8255-8250
8180-8175
8136-8132
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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permission.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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