TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
12 / 14 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:17 pm eastern time, 12/14/2008
On the heels of a nose-dive on Thursday afternoon, and more
bad news, the market gapped down on Friday and then quickly
reversed back to the upside. The SP futures ran up from
846.00 to the 867.50 Thursday low, and then pulled back to
855.25 before reversing again and turning back up. A run to
the old gap area at 879.50-880.00 area was rejected, and a
drop to 860.75 followed. The action was very erratic, but
the market caught a decent bid in the afternoon. A rally to
883.00 was followed by a drop to 869.00, but the market
turned back up and closed at the highs for the day.
The market gets knocked down and then comes right back
lately. The ranges aren't as huge as they were a few weeks
ago, as the market works on finding a bottom. The daily
chart is forming a bit of a rising wedge/channel and the
intraday pattern on Friday is similar. The market has good
buying at lower levels, but the rallies into the 900-teens
have been difficult lately. It looks like another leg on the
upside is underway, as long as the initial support isn't
broken and held on Monday. If we get another leg up, the
highs from last week will become key. If the market rallies
back towards those highs, but falls shy and reverses, then
another decent sized leg on the downside could be underway.
We will see how the indicators look when/if the market gets
back up there.
The trends were up into the close on Friday. So, on Monday
look for the "sell early, buy the first decent pullback"
type of pattern in the early going. If there is a pop up
open, and the move stalls/reverses in the first 20-40
minutes of trading, it should set up a good shorting
opportunity. If that plays out, beware that the first
pullback will set up a buying opportunity as soon as the
downside momentum stalls and the market begins to turn back
up.
The initial resistance is at the 887.50-888.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1216.50-1217.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas are not a problem, then the big
hurdles would be at the 894.00-894.75 area on the SP futures
and the 1221.25-1222.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market gets up there, and the move stalls out, beware of a
reversal. If that doesn't set up, and the market cuts
through those zones, then the next hurdles are at the
903.50-904.50 area on the SP futures and the 1238.00-1239.00
area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market doesn't reject
those zones, then the 907.25-908.25 area on the SP futures
and the 1243.50-1244.50 area on the Nasdaq futures would be
next. If the market has a good day on the up side, then we
could see a test the 912.50-913.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1252.50-1254.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 869.50-869.00 area on the SP
futures and the 1198.75-1198.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
That area should be pivotal. As long as the market is bought
at or above those areas, then the upside is intact. If those
are broken, and not quickly reversed, then a push down to
the 860.50-860.00 area on the SP futures and the 1188.00-
1187.00 area on the Nasdaq futures will need to hold. If
those are broken, then the wedge pattern is broken and the
855.50-855.00 area on the SP futures and the 1176.75-1176.00
area on the Nasdaq futures should be seen, at a minimum,
before a turn-around attempt occurs. If those are broken and
the market doesn't quickly reverse, then a test of the
Friday lows at the 846.00 level on the SP futures and the
1156.75 level on the Nasdaq futures could be in the cards.
If the market gets back down there, and cannot pass the test
and turn back up, then there is trouble brewing. The next
good support would be near the 838.00-837.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1150.25-1149.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Major support would be at the 830.25-828.75 area on the SP
futures and the 1140.25-1138.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
887.50-888.00
894.00-894.75
903.50-904.50
907.25-908.25
912.50-913.50
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
869.50-869.00
860.50-860.00
855.50-855.00
846.00
838.00-837.50
830.25-828.75
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1216.50-1217.50
1221.25-1222.50
1238.00-1239.00
1243.50-1244.50
1252.50-1254.00
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1198.75-1198.00
1188.00-1187.00
1176.75-1176.00
1156.75
1150.25-1149.50
1140.25-1138.25
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
8698-8703
8728-8734
8790-8795
8850-8857
8930-8936
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
8531-8525
8450-8446
8388-8381
8287
8202-8198
8128-8122
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This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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