TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
6 / 25 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:40 pm eastern time, 6/25/2008
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The market opened higher on Wednesday and rallied into the
lunchtime trading. The SP futures had some trouble after
reaching 1330, and a small pullback occurred before the Fed
release. After the release, there was a pop and drop over
the first 20 minutes, and then the market rallied back.
After testing the 1334.00 high, the market went right back
down to the pullback lows. The SP futures held the 1324.50
level and then turned back up and didn't really pause until
making new highs for the day. The SP futures reached 1337.75
and quickly reversed, and that started another drop. The
move broke the bottoms at 1324.50 on the way down, and only
the closing bell could stop the selling as the averages
closed well below the afternoon highs.
Despite the late day drubbing, the averages all closed
higher on Wednesday. The oversold condition has been
relieved, so the market doesn't have that for a prop at the
moment. About the only thing that is bullish is the end of
month upside bias for the market. The reversal from a strong
resistance zone was rejected, and a lot of longs are likely
still stuck in losing positions. The rallies that stall out,
or reverse, should offer the better opportunities on
Thursday as the trends and momentum are pointing down.
On Thursday there could be a quick trade on the long side if
follow through selling reverses in the early going. If that
plays out, don't fall in love with any long trade as the
first decent bounce will likely be sold. The SP futures need
to get over the 1324.50-1325.00 area and the Nasdaq futures
need to break the 1947.75-1949.00 area, and not quickly
reverse, to get the market in to neutral territory. On the
other side of the coin, if there is a selloff that sends the
market down really hard to the 1298.50-1297.50 area on the
SP futures, and the market reverses back to the upside, then
that could set up a good rally. Aside from that, short the
bounces that go for about 30-40 minutes and then stall out,
especially if they coincide with a fixed or dynamic
resistance zone, until things change.
The initial resistance is at the 1324.50-1325.00 area on the
SP futures and 1947.75-1949.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are reached and not reversed, then the door is open
for a rally towards the 1329.75-1330.25 area on the SP
futures and 1954.00-1954.75 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are reached, and the market doesn't have trouble
pushing through, then a test of the 1337.50-1338.00 area on
the SP futures and 1960.00-1960.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures would be a surprise, and likely make for a great
shorting opportunity if the move stalls and reverses like it
did on Wednesday.
The initial support is at the 1321.00-1320.25 area on the SP
futures and 1928.00-1927.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
Those will likely be broken on the open, and id so then they
could turn in to resistance. The first good support is at
the 1316.00-1315.50 area on the SP futures and 1919.50-
1918.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If there is going to be
an early reversal, it could come from those areas. However,
if those are broken and the market doesn't quickly reverse,
then the market could spill towards the 1310.75-1310.00 area
on the SP futures and 1908.75-1907.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are broken, then the 1305.50-1303.00 area
on the SP futures and 1895.00-1892.50 area on the Nasdaq
futures would be major support. If those are broken, be on
alert for a reversal from the 1298.50-1297.50 area on the SP
futures. If that doesn't happen, then the 1292.50-1291.75
area on the SP futures is as far as a drop should go unless
the market is in a crashette type environment.
September 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1324.50-1325.00
1329.75-1330.25
1337.50-1338.00
September 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1321.00-1320.25
1316.00-1315.50 important early
1310.75-1310.00
1305.50-1303.00 big
1298.50-1297.50
1292.50-1291.75 major
September 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1947.75-1949.00
1954.00-1954.75
1960.75
September 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1928.00-1927.25
1919.50-1918.25
1908.75-1907.75
1895.00-1892.50
September 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
11822-12827
11850-11854
11919-11923
September 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
11786-11782
11758-11752
11720-11708
11654-11648
September 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
716.70-717.00
718.20-718.60
722.80-723.20
September 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
710.40-709.80
706.00-705.50
703.00-702.50
698.70-697.90
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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