TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
6 / 10 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:57 pm eastern time, 6/10/2008
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The market opened lower on Tuesday and right at the 1352.00-
1350.50 area key support zone on the SP futures. The market
turned up and the SP futures bounced from 1351.25 to 1356.75
(which was initial support turned resistance) and turned
down. The pullback was 4 points to 1252.75 and then the
market sprinted higher. The move took the market back to the
1362.25 level on the SP futures and after pulling back, they
popped to 1359.75 and then turned back down. The pullback
reversed from 1356.25, just under updated support, and then
the upside continued until the SP futures reached the
1363.75-1364.00 and then reversed. They pulled back to the
updated support around 1361, and then bounced back to make a
run towards the 1368.00 resistance. This time they fell just
shy of the resistance, reaching 1367.25 on the SP futures
and then pulled back. After the dip, the SP futures reached
1366.75 and reversed, setting up a 1-2-3 top that took the
market lower to the 1354.50 level. That was reversed right
at 2:20 pm eastern time and the market bounced back.
However, the move fizzled after the SP futures fizzled at
the 1362.50 level and the market sold off into the close.
We get the Fed's Beige Book at 2 pm on Wednesday. The market
is in danger of breaking well defined support on the SP500
and also the Nasdaq 100 cash indices. On the SP500 cash, the
1350-1348 area is key support. On the Nasdaq 100 cash, the
1948-1944 area is key support. If those zones are both
broken and the market can only bounce back feebly and not
get back over those zones and hold, then the market will be
breaking down even further. If that occurs, then we could
head towards the 1336-1333 area on the SP500 cash and
futures. On the other side of the coin, if the market goes
down to those areas and then snaps right back above them and
rallies with some gusto, a decent low could be put in place.
The market is beginning to get short term oversold, and the
VIX still has another day for the buy signals to work. So,
if there is early weakness that reverses from the 1348.00-
1347.50 area on the SP futures and the 1949.00-1947.50 area
on the Nasdaq futures, then it should set up a trade on the
long side as we could see a decent rally come from it. For
proof, a break and hold over the 1362.00-1362.50 zone is
needed and if that occurs, then the market could extend to
the upside helped by a bit of a short squeeze. However,
unless/until there is a break and hold over the 1362.00-
1362.50 zone, the market is vulnerable and the path of least
resistance should be to the downside.
The initial resistance is at the 1362.00-1362.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1980.00-1981.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If the market gets up there, it must not fail or
else the market is still in trouble. If the market gets back
up there and the move doesn't reverse, then another push to
the 1367.50-1368.00 area on the SP futures and the 1989.50-
1990.50 area on the Nasdaq futures is possible. If the
market doesn't show any sign of reversing from those areas,
then the Fed Beige Book will have ignited an oversold market
and the rally should test the 1371.50-1372.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1998.50-1999.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market gets back up there, it would put a higher high
on the daily chart, but the strength will likely be sold in
any case if the momentum stalls out.
The initial support is at the 1355.00-1354.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1966.25-1965.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market isn't able to reverse from those areas, then
the pressure should be on and a test of the 1350.50 level on
the SP futures and the 1958.25 level on the Nasdaq futures
should be magnets. If those are reached and the market
doesn't quickly turn up, then the market must hold and
reverse from the 1348.00-1347.50 area on the SP futures and
the 1949.00-1947.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those
areas are broken and the market cannot reverse and rally
with some gusto, then the bears might try to push the market
towards the 1336-1333 area on the SP futures. If the market
does break and hold under those support zones, then look for
a potential bounce from the 1342.50 and/or 1942.00 levels
along the way.
June 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1362.00-1362.50
1367.50-1368.00
1371.50-1372.50
June 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1355.00-1354.50
1350.50
1348.00-1347.50
1342.50
1336-1333
June 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1980.00-1981.00
1989.50-1990.50
1998.50-1999.25
June 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1966.25-1965.50
1958.25
1949.00-1947.50
1942.00
June 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm8
12327-12331
12372-12377
12412-12417
June 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm8
12266-12261
12208
12178-12172
12130
June 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
734.80-735.20
737.50-737.90
739.90-740.30
June 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
728.40-728.10
724.80
723.00-722.50
718.20
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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