TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
6 / 15 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:28 pm eastern time, 6/15/2008
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It was a rollercoaster ride for the market last week. On
Monday and Tuesday things were okay, but on Wednesday and
Thursday the market was hit with selling. On Friday the
action was volatile and two-sided action, with an early
rally followed by a midday selloff and ending with a good
end of day rally. When the dust was settled, the week ended
with a very mixed market. The Dow gained 97 points, the
SP500 ended down a fraction, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 24
points for the week.
The daily charts look like a short term bottom could be in
place and the path of least resistance should be to the
upside, or at worst more two-sided action, early in the
week. The key will be the ability to hold above the last
hour lows at the 1351.75-1351.00 area on the SP futures and
the 1957.50-1956.75 area on the Nasdaq futures on Monday.
The market will be in "buy the dips" mode as long as those
are defended.
In any case, the volatility is picking up pace and there
should be some big moves coming. On the upside, there will
likely be reactions around resistance zones that should be
tradable, if only for a quick pullback. If the market does
move higher over the next day or two, something I'll be
watching is the VIX. If it continues lower and then prices
lose momentum, then a reversal will likely set the stage for
a significant drop.
On Monday, if there is early strength, look for a shorting
opportunity if the move stalls/reverses in the first 40
minutes of trading. If the market obliges, beware that the
first decent pullback will likely set up a good buying
opportunity, as long as it holds at/above the 1351.75-
1351.00 area on the SP futures and the 1957.50-1956.75 area
on the Nasdaq futures. If those areas are reached and the
move doesn't quickly reverse, then a high for the morning is
likely in place and the market would be back in a bit of
trouble short term.
The initial resistance is at the 1362.50-1363.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1978.25-1979.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas are not a problem, then there should
be strong resistance at the 1369.50-1370.25 area on the SP
futures and the 1987.50-1988.50 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are reached and the move stalls out, beware of a
reversal. However, if the market plows right through those
areas, then there should be some resistance at the 1373.25-
1374.00 and 1999.50-2001.25 areas. If a rally doesn't
reverse from up there, then the key resistance is at the
1379.50-1380.50 area on the SP futures and the 2011.25-
2013.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1358.25-1357.75 area on the SP
futures and the 1968.50-1968.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are not bought, then the market needs to hold the
1354.50 level on the SP futures and the 1961.50 level on the
Nasdaq futures to avoid turning the trends. If the market
breaks those levels, then it would need to quickly turn back
up from the 1351.75-1351.00 area on the SP futures and the
1957.50-1956.75 area on the Nasdaq futures to avoid trouble.
If the bulls do not defend those areas, then the trends will
have rolled over and a test of the 1347.00-1346.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1952.75-1951.75 area on the Nasdaq
futures would need to hold, otherwise something is wrong and
the SP500 cash might have its eye on going down to the 1328-
1326 area as the market makes a new low on this leg down.
June 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1362.50-1363.00
1369.50-1370.25
1373.25-1374.00
1379.50-1380.50
June 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1358.25-1357.75
1354.50
1351.75-1351.00
1347.00-1346.50
1328-1326 {SP500 cash}
June 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1978.25-1979.00
1987.50-1988.50
1999.50-2001.25
2011.25-2013.00
June 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1968.50-1968.25
1961.50
1957.50-1956.75
1952.75-1951.75
June 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm8
12319-12324
12347-12351
12365-12372
13458-12465
June 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm8
12885-12881
12250
12226-12221
12187-12184
June 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
734.70-735.10
737.90-738.30
742.50-742.90
748.20-748.60
June 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
731.10
728.80
727.40-727.00
723.90-723.60
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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