TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
6 / 09 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:22 pm eastern time, 6/9/2008
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The market opened higher on Monday, and that first bounce
was sold as the SP futures dropped from 1366.00 to 1360.25
in the first 20 minutes of trading. The market turned up and
the SP futures rallied to the 1368.50-1369.00 resistance
zone, but after poking over that zone by just half of a
point, the SP futures quickly reversed from 1369.50 and
pulled back 5.25 points to 1364.25. Buyers stepped to the
plate and the market popped to new highs (with exception of
a weaker Nasdaq futures), and off of a 1371.50 high, the SP
futures pulled back to 1364.50. The SP futures went into a
range between the 60 ema on the 5 minute chart on the top
side and 1364.50 on the bottom side, and after a third
reversal down from that 60 period ema they finally broke
through that 1364.50 bottom of the range and the downside
picked up steam. After reaching 1357.50 on the SP futures,
the market bounced and then stalled out, forming a "slinky"
pattern on the 5 minute chart, and the SP futures headed
down to 1350.50 at exactly 2:20pm eastern time. The market
turned up and the SP futures took out the updated 1358.00-
1358.50 zone, but the move fizzled and the market backed off
to test its lows. The test passed, and with higher lows on
the charts, it made a "rising W" pattern as the market
rallied into the close.
The market made a pretty good reversal on Monday. The
washout under the 1352.50-1352.00 zone was quickly reversed,
and then the retest held at the 1352.00 level on the SP
futures. The 1352.00-1350.50 zone will now be a key area for
the bulls to defend. It "feels" like there might be another
sell-off in the cards. Fighting that, the VIX gave 3 buy
signals at Monday's close. If not for such a weak Nasdaq on
Monday, things would be more bullish. As it stands now,
another pullback needs to hold the 1352.00-1350.50 zone on
the SP futures, or quickly reverse if that zone is broken,
to keep the door open for a decent rally attempt. However,
the upside won't be easy, as there was a good deal of damage
done last week.
On Tuesday look for a shorting opportunity if there is
follow through strength just as soon as the move stalls out
and/or reverses. If that plays out, beware that the first
decent pullback will likely set up a trade on the long side,
especially if the initial support is held.
The initial resistance is just over the Monday closes at the
1363.75-1364.00 area on the SP futures and 1990.50-1992.00
area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are not a problem, then
the 1368.00 and 1999.75 levels would be next. If the market
gets up to those levels in the very early going, and the
move stalls out, then we could see a quick pullback to the
initial resistance areas, or further. However, if the market
can get through those levels, then the 1371.50-1372.00 area
on the SP futures and 2006.50-2007.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures would be key resistance. If the market doesn't
stall/reverse on a test of those areas, then the door is
open for a rally back to the 1375.50-1376.25 area on the SP
futures and 2011.75-2013.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
we get a move to those areas, be alert for a reversal back
to the downside. However, if the market has a rally that's
strong enough to get to those areas, and it still doesn't
reverse, then we could see a test of what should be major
resistance at the 1381.75-1382.25 area on the SP futures and
2023.75-2025.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1356.75 level on the SP
futures and 1968.50 level on the Nasdaq futures. If those
are broken, and the market can't turn around quickly, then
we could fall back to see if that 1352.00-1350.50 area on
the SP futures and the 1961.50-1959.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures can hold. If those areas tested again, then chances
are good that they will be broken and either accelerate, or
be a fake-out move and quickly reverse. If there is going to
be a reversal instead of mini-panic, then the selling
shouldn't go any further than the 1348.00-1347.50 area on
the SP futures and 1951.50-1949.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those areas can't hold, then the 1336-1334 area
on the SP500 cash is likely.
June 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1363.75-1364.00
1368.00
1371.50-1372.00
1375.50-1376.25
1381.75-1382.25
June 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1356.75
1352.00-1350.50
1348.00-1347.50
1336-1334
June 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1990.50-1992.00
1999.75
2006.50-2007.25
2011.75-2013.25
2023.75-2025.00
June 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1968.50
1961.50-1959.00
1951.50-1949.00
June 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm8
12301-12305
12320
12334-12339
12365-12369
12407-12412
June 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm8
12243
12205-12200
12063-12058
June 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
737.40-737.80
740.80
742.50-742.90
749.70-750.10
754.20-754.70
June 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
732.70
729.00-728.40
725.60-725.20
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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